AROUND THE IVIES: Deep Conference Kicks Off Conference Play

When we last convened, dear Around the Ivies reader, the Ancient Eight was filled with high drama. Heading into the final weekend of conference play, Harvard and Princeton were jockeying for position atop the standings with a bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. After the Crimson took care of business at home against Cornell and the Tigers laid an orange stripy egg all over the Providence floor, the title remained in Cambridge.

Though the drama may not be as high yet in the early stages of this year’s Ivy season, the high quality of play in the Ancient Eight makes up for it. With a collection of on-the-rise programs as well as old standbys, the Ivy League can now count itself as a solidly mid-major conference.

The first inkling that something was up came in November, when Columbia, of all teams, nearly upset then-No. 2 Michigan State in East Lansing, Mich. By December, the Ivy League had climbed up to 11th on Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings, which rely only on game results and scores. For a time, there were even whispers on Twitter of a #2BidIvy—alluding to the possibility of an Ivy League team making the NCAA tournament with an at-large bid—though those have been mostly silenced after the Crimson suffered a couple of tough non-conference losses.

How did we get here? Princeton has been a big reason. Expected to have a down year after the loss of Ivy League Player of the Year Ian Hummer, the Tigers have remained firmly in the championship conversation behind the stellar play of senior guard T.J. Bray. After plunging into a vat of toxic waste in the offseason, Bray emerged as a basketball-loving mutant, dominating smaller defenders with his now-radioactive 6’5”, 207-lb. frame. Bray has nearly doubled both his scoring and assist averages from last year and turned himself into the frontrunner for conference MVP in the process.

And, hey, is that Columbia being competitive? Why, it is! Opponents can no longer wipe their feet on the perennial doormat Lions, who boast the conference’s third-best record, led by the sharpshooting duo of sophomore guard Maodo Lo and junior forward Alex Rosenberg—both better than 51 percent from three. Brown, Yale, and Dartmouth wrap up a very respectable middle of the conference, with Penn a bit of a disappointment at 4-11—though, with a home win over Princeton last week, the Quakers proved they are still dangerous.

But Harvard remains the class of the Ivies at 15-3, the No. 43 team nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s data-driven rankings. Co-captain Brandyn Curry and senior forward Kyle Casey have been integrated into the team with little trouble, while sophomore Siyani Chambers and junior Wesley Saunders continue to shine. If all shakes out as expected, the Crimson will be heading back to the NCAA Tournament, likely as a 10 to 12 seed.

The only factor that has threatened to derail the league’s momentum thus far is injuries. After a promising start of the season, Dartmouth lost its best player, junior forward Gabas Maldunas, to a torn ACL in January. Harvard was missing key contributors for high-profile non-conference matchups against Colorado and Connecticut, and Bray did not play for Princeton in a close loss against Butler. With a little more luck, the Ivy League—which currently sits at 17th in Sagarin’s conference rankings—could be in an even stronger position. But the Ancient Eight has already proven itself to be nationally competitive, which is more than could be said in many years past. On to the games!

CORNELL V. BROWN

After all those kind words about the Ivy League, it’s time to deliver some not-so-kind ones because Cornell has managed to discover, capture, and mass produce the essence of suck. The Big Red is currently 1-15 (!!!) on the season; its first win didn’t come until January 11 against Division III Oberlin College. That’s right—the program that four years ago made the Sweet Sixteen does not have a Division I win in late January.

Want some more misery? When I opened the team statistics page on Cornell’s website to dig a little deeper, I found a giant “:(”. Opponents are outscoring the Big Red by 14.7 points per game. Ken Pomeroy’s rankings put them at 345th out of 351 teams. Tough.

How did this happen? Cornell was at least halfway decent last season, finishing at 13-18. Before this year, there were complimentary murmurs circulating about sophomore guard Nolan Cressler. They even had a returning All-Ivy first-teamer in junior forward Shonn Miller.

But in late October, it surfaced that Miller would likely miss the entire 2013-2014 season with a shoulder injury. Fifth-year senior Errick Peck, Cornell’s other All-Ivy performer from last season, transferred to Purdue to play out his redshirt year of eligibility, which the Ivy League does not honor. Things should get better for the Big Red as the team’s young core improves in the coming years, but boy, let’s shield the children’s eyes for now.

Pick: Brown

COLUMBIA V. YALE

This weekend would go a long way toward proving Columbia means to be taken seriously. For the first time in a long time, the Lions are dealing with “expectations,” a word that had to be explained carefully to members of the Columbia athletic department. I say keep it up, you Lions!

Pick: Columbia

PRINCETON V. HARVARD

Ivy League play is not messing around, giving us one of the biggest matchups of the season on the first Friday of the conference season. If the Tigers can’t pull off the upset, the title race is close to over. That sounds strange to say after less than 25 percent of the conference season, but it’s realistic with such a gap between the top two and the rest of the league. A two-game deficit may be too much for Princeton to overcome, even if it returns the favor to the Crimson at Jadwin Gymnasium. The @ivybball Twitter account, which posts projections of the Ivy season, gives the Tigers 14 percent odds of earning a share of the title going into Friday, but those odds fall below seven percent if both Penn and Princeton fall to Harvard this weekend.

You have to hand it to Princeton—no one plays the villain better. I’m almost glad Bray stepped in so smoothly to fill the role of menacing aggressor vacated by Ian Hummer (who just signed a contract to play in Germany, which is perfect). But Bray seems a little too friendly to totally pull it off. Seriously, check him out. I want to ask that guy about his Lego collection, not boo him off a basketball court.

Pick: Harvard

PENN V. DARTMOUTH

It can’t be easy to already be mired in what I term “the Slog”—the monotony of playing out one’s conference schedule knowing one hasn’t a prayer of making it to the postseason. I’m not putting Penn in Slog territory, but I’m afraid, in your weakened condition, you’re already there, Dartmouth. Get your rain boots on, Big Green. It’s going to be a long six weeks of Sloggin’.

Pick: Penn

COLUMBIA V. BROWN

Brown senior guard Sean McGonagill, the Ivy League’s current leading scorer, tallied his career high against Columbia his freshman year with 39 points on 15-of-19 shooting from the field. This came two days after a collision in practice earned him 20 stitches and knocked three of his teeth out. Presumably, his disfigured mug made the Lions’ defenders a little hesitant to get too close, allowing him consistently open looks.

Last year’s matchup in Providence was a wild affair featuring three lead changes in the final 68 seconds. Brown managed to pull out a three-point victory despite McGonagill scoring only four points. No word yet on whether McGonagill will mash in his face with a waffle iron to rekindle the magic.

Pick: Brown

CORNELL V. YALE

To be honest, I’m pretty bummed out thinking about Cornell again. If the conference was a group of cars, this year’s Cornell team would be the white unmarked van: nothing good can come from looking too closely, and it’s all-too-present in Ithaca.

Pick: Yale

PRINCETON V. DARTMOUTH

As I’ve alluded to, Princeton cannot afford any more slipups if it means to contend for the Ivy title. Luckily for the Tigers, Dartmouth looks to have pretty much fallen apart after the loss of Maldunas. The Big Green faithful can only hope this year’s setback does not negate a potentially promising future.

Pick: Princeton

PENN V. HARVARD

Harvard’s ugly, brick-laying loss last week to Florida Atlantic raised some questions (“Should we shoot the ball with our feet or our hands?”), but those were mostly answered when Harvard shot 66 percent from the field and beat Dartmouth on the road, 80-50. Facing a hobbled Penn at home should not present too many challenges. Expect the Crimson to coast to victory.

Pick: Harvard

—Staff writer Andrew R. Mooney can be reached at mooney@college.harvard.edu