Who's Next? Arizona-Harvard Preview Part III

In preparation for Harvard’s third-round matchup against the Arizona Wildcats (26-7, 12-6 Pac-12) on Saturday (6:10 EST, TNT), staff writer David Freed takes a look at the Wildcats’ tape from their Thursday 81-64 win over the Belmont Bruins and takes a look at both what bodes ill and well for the Crimson’s chances against the Wildcats on Saturday.

In previous installments of this preview, I’ve looked at Arizona’s resume and individual matchups with the Crimson. However, going beyond the stats and assessing a team with the ‘eye test’ brings a different perspective. For the Wildcats, it shows the disproportionate affect that senior point guard Mark Lyons has on the offense as well as the strategy Wildcat coach Sean Miller will likely employ to slow down the Crimson shooters.

The choice to review this game was prompted by the fact that Belmont is a fairly similar team to Harvard offensively. The Bruins shoot 38.3 percent from deep as a team and start three players that shoot better than the team average from three. Swingman Ian Clark averages 18 points a game and his .543/.833/.459 shooting splits (field goal percentage/free throw percentage/three point percentage) aren’t that different from those of Harvard sophomore Wesley Saunders (.538/.732/.500). Belmont is taller than Harvard and starts three players six-six or taller compared to just the Crimson’s one. The two teams have similar offensive philosophies of playing inside-out and derive their strengths from strong outside shooters and crafty finishers inside (Clark and Kerron Johnson for Belmont, Saunders and freshman Siyani Chambers for Harvard).

Arizona briefly began the game in a two-three matchup zone that had freshman Kaleb Tarczewski anchoring the paint with the rest of the starting lineup (Mark Lyons, Kevin Parrom, Nick Johnson, and Solomon Hill) spread out on the perimeter. The zone segued into a soft man-to-man with the center hanging in the paint when Clark beat Tarczewski exploited the freshman’s tendency to hang back in the paint, sinking two jumpers from the top of the key. Tarczewski and the Wildcats’ other big men—freshmen Grant Jerrett and Brandon Ashley—close out well on three-point shooters and have the length to contest shots even when they initially look out of position.

Against the Crimson, look for Miller to use Tarczewski to handle sophomore big Jonah Travis, Steve Moundou-Missi, and Kenyatta Smith one-on-one in a similar strategy. At times, the former Xavier coach put in Jerrett or Ashley with Tarczewski to create two-big lineups that yielded large rebounding advantages against the smaller Bruins (Arizona finished with a 42-15 rebounding margin, 12-2 on the offensive boards). The Wildcats don’t try to get out on fast breaks, crashing the defensive boards. With the Crimson not being a particularly good offensive rebounding team—to put it lightly—Arizona will have the advantage on the defensive boards. On offense, Arizona crashes the offensive boards hard and reaped the benefits against the Bruins, who look to get out on fast breaks. Harvard is an inferior rebounding team to Belmont but leaves everyone home in an attempt to improve its rebounding percentages. The battle between the trio of Wildcat bigs and the Harvard front line will have a large impact on Saturday’s game.

Arizona excels at spacing the floor when it is on offense. Although it is not a dominant three point shooting team, the Wildcats send Johnson (38 percent from deep) and Parrom (40 percent) to the corners on most possessions. Johnson, who is a better ball handler, will curl around and handle the ball at the top of the key sometimes, in which case Solomon Hill slides back into the void he created on the wing. By keeping its wings isolated around the arc, Arizona gives its big men a large amount of space inside to operate in. Belmont was content to try and win a one-on-one battle down low and was burned time and time again by Tarczewski (five for five shooting, 12 points). Jerrett and Ashley also consistently were able to beat the Belmont big men inside, even when the Bruins shifted to a zone in the second half to counter how the Wildcat guards drew help defense away from the basket.

Drawing the opponent’s big men to the perimeter also allows Lyons and Johnson to beat defenders one-on-one and get to the hoop. Both are good finishers in the lane and possess the athleticism to create space in the air and jump through and around defenders. The Wildcat big will sometime screen off his man to give the guards more room to operate as they drive, making the task of opponent shot blockers that much more difficult. Johnson and Lyons also are good passers out of traffic, preventing defenses from collapsing on them. In particular, Johnson excels at finding the open man in the corner. All five of his assists were on three-point shots and he found Hill for each of his three-pointers.

In the second half, the Wildcats ratcheted up the offense behind a steady stream of three-pointers that opened up avenues inside for drives. After scoring just 32 points in the first half, Arizona put up 49 in the second half. Much of that had to do with improved shooting from the Wildcats (they made five threes in the period) that stretched the floor. The Bruins initially came out in a two-three zone intended to counter the presence of Tarczewski inside. Not only did the Massachusetts native continue to dominate inside, but it opened up opportunities for Hill and Parrom on the outside.

The Bruins was also much improved on offense in the second half. Belmont scored 44 points after just 20 in the first half, launching threes from every part of the court. Although the final box score reflects just a 29.6 percent conversion rate from behind the arc, I counted at least six open looks that the Bruins could not convert. Three of those came from the corner, the most efficient area on the floor. Both are good signs for the Crimson, who specialize in the three and who love to spot up junior Laurent Rivard in the corner. For Smith Moundou-Missi, who employ the same strategy in the Ivy League, it will be key to shade out and deny Lyons avenues to the basket. Neither big man has seen a guard with Lyons’ athleticism.

For the Crimson, Arizona’s play against Belmont has a lot of important lessons. If the Wildcats can shoot more than 50 percent from beyond the arc, Harvard will have a very hard time stopping the Wildcats on the perimeter. It will be crucial for the Crimson that Smith be able to stay in the game and avoid foul trouble while providing good defense on Tarczewski. With McDonald’s All-Americans coming off the bench on the interior, Arizona boasts interior depth that the Lobos did not have beyond Alex Kirk. The Crimson perimeter defenders also must be accountable off the dribble. With Johnson’s ability to penetrate the lane, Harvard coach Tommy Amaker will run into major trouble if he tries to put either Christian Webster or Rivard—neither of which are ace perimeter defenders—on him. Shutting down Johnson is the key to shutting down this Arizona offense, as he is both their best creator and shooter.

On offense, there are good takeaways for Amaker’s squad. The Wildcats did not defend the corner three, a Crimson specialty, very well. Lyons is not a guard that will dominate Chambers physically, and he is a much easier mark than the six-four Williams. Although Miller will likely play offense-defense switches in putting Johnson on Rivard or Webster and sticking Parrom on Saunders, none of the Wildcat guards could stop Belmont guards Ian Clark or Karrom Johnson from getting into the lane consistently in the second half. The big men for the Wildcats are impressive defenders, however, and can contest shots out to the three-point line. Screening and getting them away from the basket will be key for Amaker and his squad.

The result is a bit of a mixed message. Belmont’s loss to Arizona wasn’t as bad as the score indicated; a couple made threes could have completely changed the game for the Bruins. Lyons enjoyed an unusually efficient game from the field. In the win, the Wildcats still had 15 turnovers. The Crimson, led by Saunders, has quick hands and can exploit this, especially in the open court. Harvard will be facing an uphill battle to take down the Wildcats, but that’s been the case all year. If they can contain Johnson and Tarczewski, the Crimson has a good chance to defy the odds yet again.