Fate of Ivy League Basketball Crown Unclear

Penn’s upset of the Harvard men’s basketball team Saturday altered the race for the 2012 Ivy crown. The final weekend of conference play will no longer be a coronation of the Crimson, as a number of scenarios exist in which Harvard does not end up with the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Here is what could happen depending on the outcome of next weekend’s games.

If Harvard wins its weekend matchups with Columbia on Friday and Cornell on Saturday, it will secure at least a share of the Ivy League Title. When those two teams came to Cambridge, odds makers gave Harvard a roughly 94 percent chance of winning each game. Those percentages will be lower when the Crimson take to the road, but Harvard will still be expected to emerge victorious in both contests. Its fate is no longer solely in its hands though, as the Quakers now will also have a say in who represents the league in the Big Dance.

Penn still has three games between them and a potential one-game playoff. If they beat Brown on Friday and Yale Saturday in the Palestra and then take down Princeton on the road and the Crimson goes undefeated next weekend, the two teams will meet with a spot in the NCAA tournament on the line. The two teams would also meet in a play-in game if they each lost once from here on out.

There is also a chance that Harvard could face the Bulldogs in a playoff game. The two rivals would face each other once more this year if Yale takes down Penn and Princeton, Brown or Princeton also beat the Quakers, and the Crimson loses one more game.

Harvard could also be left out of the postseason fun altogether if they lose twice this weekend, Yale wins out and Penn beats Brown and Princeton.

And then there is a chance of a three-way tie for the title. If any of the following scenarios play out, one team—based on its record against the other tied teams—would face the winner of a battle between the two other teams vying for an NCAA bid. Harvard, Penn, and Princeton could find themselves in this situation if Princeton wins out, Penn loses to Brown as well as Princeton, and Harvard loses twice more.

It’s also possible that Harvard, Penn, and Yale could duke it out for No. 1. If Yale wins out, Penn beats Brown and Princeton and the Crimson fall in either game this weekend. If Harvard were to lose both of its last two games, Princeton were to win out and Penn loses to both Yale and Brown, then the Crimson would find itself in a three-way tie with the Tigers and Bulldogs.

If these scenarios aren’t complicated enough, there is also a chance that Princeton, Penn, Harvard and Yale could all claim a piece of the Ivy League title. If Princeton wins out, Penn loses to Yale and beats Brown, and Harvard loses twice, the four squads would all duel for the tournament berth.