Democratic Youth Vote Dominates Midterm Predictions, Harvard Poll Finds

Democrats lead Republicans by 37 percentage points among young Americans who say they will definitely vote in November’s midterm elections, as young people report mounting economic anxiety and record-low optimism about the country’s future, according to the fall 2026 Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday.

The Youth Poll, conducted by the Harvard Public Opinion Project at the Institute of Politics, surveyed 2,024 Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7. It is the 53rd edition of the biannual poll, which has tracked young Americans’ political attitudes since 2000.

Among likely young voters, Democrats lead Republicans 63 percent to 26 percent in the congressional ballot, with 10 percent undecided. Among registered young voters, Democrats lead 45 percent to 24 percent.

“Young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke to President Trump, while the broader generation is sending a message to everyone in power,” Institute of Politics Director of Polling John Della Volpe wrote in a press release.

Thirty-three percent of respondents said they will definitely vote in November, down from 40 percent ahead of both the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections. Fifty percent of young Democrats said they will definitely vote, compared with 34 percent of young Republicans — a 16-point gap, up from five points in 2022.

Opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump also appears to be driving young voters to the polls. Sixty-three percent of likely voters described their vote as opposition to Trump and his policies, compared with 14 percent who described it as support. Seventy-seven percent of young Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy.

The cost of living and government corruption ranked as the leading concerns for young voters ahead of the midterms. Among registered young voters who said they had at least a 50-50 chance of voting, 91 percent identified the cost of living as important to their vote, followed by 88 percent who cited government corruption.

Just nine percent of respondents said the country is headed in the right direction, the lowest level recorded in the poll’s history. Nearly two-thirds said the country is on the wrong track, while 69 percent said they feel more fearful than hopeful about America’s future.

Nearly half of respondents said their personal financial situation had worsened since Trump took office. Twenty-five percent said in the poll that they expected to be better off financially than their parents, while 27 percent expected to be worse off — marking the first time the poll has found young Americans anticipating falling behind, instead of surpassing, their parents.

Young Americans also said they were concerned about how their financial security would be impacted by artificial intelligence. Sixty-four percent said AI replacing jobs posed a serious threat to their long-term financial security, while 68 percent identified the power of large corporations as a serious threat.

A majority of respondents supported several progressive policy proposals. Fifty-seven percent supported Medicare for All, while 54 percent favored a 2 percent annual tax on household wealth above $50 million. Support for both proposals extended to young Republicans, among whom 39 percent supported Medicare for All and 42 percent supported the wealth tax.

Half of respondents supported ending U.S. military aid to Israel, while 19 percent opposed it. Perspectives on abortion, deportation, and transgender student athletes split along party lines, with support gaps of at least 45 percentage points between Democrats and Republicans.

Young voters also expressed limited confidence in the integrity of the upcoming elections. Thirty-four percent of respondents said they trusted that the 2026 midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately, while 40 percent expressed little or no trust.

Sophia J. Robertson ’28, student chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, said the findings reflected young Americans’ economic concerns and distrust of democratic institutions.

“As they feel current policies fall short, young people are turning towards populist economic ideas and candidates who actively respond to the crises they face,” Robertson wrote in a press release.

—Staff writer Jen L. Phan can be reached at [email protected] and Signal at jenphan.74. Follow her on X at @jenllphan.

—Staff writer Mirei S. Saneyoshi can be reached at [email protected] and Signal at mireisaneyoshi.09. Follow her on X at @mireisaneyoshi.