Kornacki Says Trump Conviction Won’t Be Windfall for Dems at Harvard IOP Forum

NBC political analyst Steve J. Kornacki said many swing voters are likely to keep supporting former President Donald Trump even if he is convicted of a felony at a Wednesday Institute of Politics forum.

The event came 10 days after an NBC poll showed President Joe Biden’s five point lag turning into a three point lead in the event of a Trump conviction ahead of their anticipated November rematch, with the largest swing among disgruntled voters who backed Biden in 2020.

But Kornacki — who traded in his trademark khakis for gray slacks — cautioned Democrats against banking on Trump’s 91 felony charges dramatically tilting the landscape of November’s election in their favor.

The poll’s respondents likely felt compelled to give the morally “right answer,” Kornacki said, adding that voters could wind up remaining in Trump’s camp even if he were to be convicted.

“When it actually happens, it feels a lot more complicated,” he said.

“They kind of rationalize the situation,” added fall 2023 IOP Resident fellow and former “Meet the Press” producer Betsy Fischer Martin, who moderated the forum. “If they were Team Red, it takes a lot for them to take off the red team jersey.”

During Wednesday’s discussion — the cable news celebrity’s second trip to the IOP since the 2020 election — Kornacki also discussed the evolving composition of the Republican electorate.

Kornacki said Republicans have turned gains among Hispanic voters into an unexpected “multi-ethnic,” working-class base that has transformed the GOP and poses new obstacles for Democrats in 2024.

“If you took the Trump name off it and you described it 10 years ago,” he said, “I don’t think you would have said this new working class coalition is taking over the Republican Party.”

Democrats will need to turnout unenthused voters in large numbers to keep Biden in the Oval Office in 2024, Kornacki said. Unlike the 2022 midterms elections, he added, abortion is not going to be “an ace in the hole” issue that drives voters to the polls — especially in the key swing state of Georgia.

“The swing voter in Georgia wasn’t persuaded by abortion,” he said. “The deciding issue was Trump, and I think there were voters who draw the line at Trump.”

Still, Kornacki said Democrats were able to flex a reliable voting bloc to flip disgraced former Congressman George Santos’s Long Island congressional district in a special election Tuesday, though young voters remain unexcited about Biden.

“The college educated, the higher income, the very tuned in politically — they’re just on fire. They are going to be there for any election,” he said. “You call an election, and they’re going to crawl if they have to go vote against the Republicans.”

Despite his political insights ahead of the November election, Kornacki was pressed by some students — and the moderator — on how his iconic outfit came to fruition.

Kornacki became an internet celebrity after he sported a pair of “palomino brown” GAP khaki pants while navigating the “Big Board” during MSNBC’s 2020 election night coverage. He said he does not fully grasp his fans’ fascination with his classic look, which he said came together purely by accident.

“I just got a dress shirt, tucked it in and went upstairs,” he said. “It was COVID so there was no adult supervision, so no one said ‘Oh don’t do that,’ and I literally didn’t think twice about it.”

Asked by Fischer why the khakis did not follow him to the IOP forum stage, Kornacki laughed.

“Maybe I’m trying to break away from it a little bit,” he said.

—Staff writer Thomas J. Mete can be reached at thomas.mete@thecrimson.com. Follow him on Twitter @thomasjmete.