Former Harvard President, Treasury Secretary Summers Warns of Inflation Under Trump

Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence H. Summers said U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies will increase inflation at a Harvard Institute of Politics forum on Thursday.

Summers, who is also a former Harvard president, said the election result was evidence that “Democrats have lost sight of the common man and woman in favor of the attitudes and philosophies of the faculty common room.”

“If President Trump does what he said he would do during his campaign, the inflation shock administered to the economy is substantially larger than anything that happened at the beginning of the last administration,” Summers said at the event, moderated by journalist John P. Ellis.

In an interview with The Crimson before the forum, Summers said that Trump’s proposed policies — including tax cuts, “politicizing the Fed,” and a pledge to increase deportations — would have the cumulative effect of creating a large inflation jump.

He added that he expects Trump to move quickly to implement the policies.

“Presidents tend to move fairly aggressively to implement the commitments that they make repeatedly during their campaigns, and so I would expect to see substantial movement on the tariff and the deportation issue,” he said.

Summers — who served in senior policy positions under both former U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — endorsed Harris in September. He has been an outspoken critic of Trump during the campaign, warning of higher inflation and a weaker economy.

Trump made economic promises a key feature of his pitch to swing state voters, painting the Biden-Harris administration as causing “the worst inflation in American history.” While inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, it was as low as 2.5 percent in August 2024.

In April, Summers warned a second Trump turn would create “an inflationary spiral,” dramatically increasing the national budget deficit.

In the Thursday interview with The Crimson, Summers admitted there were warning signs of a Trump victory in November.

“I looked at the betting markets and Nate Silver, and I thought the election could go either way,” Summers said. “I knew that the polling was often a bit off, and when it was off, it was highly correlated across states.”

“The outcome was distinctly more towards Trump than would have been my best guess, but not shocking,” he added.

While Summers said the Democratic Party has reason to be optimistic, they should focus on the economic issues in future elections.

“The voters weren’t very happy with the economy,” he said. “That’s always seen as reflecting on the incumbent, which in this case was Kamala Harris.”

At the event, he suggested patriotism and a more positive message could help the party unify and win over skeptical Republicans.

Patriotism, Summers said, is “an alternative to each subgroup of Americans embracing a particular identity which leads to a great deal of divisiveness.”

“It means putting emphasis on economic growth and containing inflation; it means celebrating our country and its strengths and the things that we do right,” he said.