Young Americans Support Harris, Doubt Peaceful Transfer of Power, IOP Poll Shows

Less than two weeks before voters head to the polls, only 20 percent of young Americans are confident that there will be a peaceful transition of power following the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest version of the Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll.

The poll — released by the Harvard Public Opinion Project on Friday — found 18 percent of Americans under the age of 30 explicitly expect that there will be no peaceful transition of power.

Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained her lead over former President Donald Trump among likely young voters, though the gap shrunk marginally since the previous IOP poll in September from 31 points to 28 points.

Across seven key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin — Harris holds a narrower 9-point lead among young voters, according to the poll.

“As we approach the final sprint to Election Day, we see that young people across the country are continuing to pay attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard,” IOP Director Setti D. Warren said in a press release.

The results released Friday surveyed more than 2,000 young Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 years from Oct. 3 and Oct. 14. This poll represents HPOP’s second poll conducted in the run up to the presidential election 10 days away.

Harris expanded her lead over Trump among young female voters compared to President Joe Biden, the poll found. While Biden led Trump by 11 points among young American women in April when he was still the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, Harris has expanded to a 20-point lead over Trump among young women.

The Institute of Politics, which offers public service opportunities to undergraduates, is located in the Harvard Kennedy School. By Julian J. Giordano

“The political gap between young men and young women has emerged as a key feature of this election,” HPOP Chair Anil Cacodcar ’26 said in the release. “The Harris and Trump campaigns have deployed extensive resources to reach both groups.”

The poll found that compared to Biden, Harris significantly increased her favorability among young white men. In April, only 25 percent of white male respondents said they would vote for Biden, but 43 percent said that they would now vote for Harris.

The poll also found that peer influence could have a significant impact on youth voter turnout, with 79 percent of Americans who expect high peer turnout planning to vote themselves. Overall, half of young Americans plan to vote this year, according to the poll — a jump up from 37 percent for the 2020 presidential election.

“The social dynamic of youth voting has never been more clear: when young Americans believe their friends will vote, they’re nearly two and a half times more likely to cast a ballot themselves,” said IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe.

“It’s peer influence, not just politics, that could determine youth turnout this year — and ultimately who becomes the next president,” Della Volpe added.

The results come as Harris and Trump enter the final 10-day stretch to win over voters — especially those in the seven critical swing states — before Ameircans head to the polls to cast their votes.

Though national polls have consistently found Harris and Trump are neck-in-neck among Americans across all ages, the IOP poll suggests Harris has gained significant ground among young people who had previously supported Biden at lower rates.

“Young Americans’ attitudes, concerns, and candidate preferences come through loud and clear in our latest Harvard Youth Poll,” Warren said.

—Staff writer William C. Mao can be reached at william.mao@thecrimson.com. Follow him on X @williamcmao.

—Staff writer Dhruv T. Patel can be reached at dhruv.patel@thecrimson.com. Follow him on X @dhruvtkpatel.