Football Media Forecasts Tight Race between Harvard and Penn

On Tuesday a group of media representatives picked Harvard football to top the Ivy League—but just barely.

In an annual pundit poll, the three-peat champions edged Penn by a score of 126 points to 119. However, the Quakers garnered more first-place votes (nine) than the Crimson (seven).

Last season Harvard shared the conference title with Penn and Dartmouth, the first three-way tie since 1982. While the Crimson and the Big Green graduated starting quarterbacks and most of their defenses, the Quakers preserved a more substantial core, including play caller Alek Torgersen and breakout receiver Justin Watson.

Given the talent that Penn returns, Harvard’s retention of top-dog status signals confidence in coach Tim Murphy’s ability to wring excellence from a new lineup.

As usual, though, the field of contenders extends beyond two. The Ancient Eight may not be as evenly balanced as last year’s tripod, but talent sparkles throughout the conference.

Harvard, 126 points (seven first-place votes)

Last year the Crimson graduated a staggering array of talent—15 starters, nine first-team All-Ivy players, four NFL signees, three starting linebackers, and an All-Ivy quarterback.

The most glaring challenge in 2016, then, is to escape the shadow of what Murphy has called “arguably the most successful senior class in Harvard football history.”

Captain and fifth-year senior Sean Ahern will provide constancy at cornerback, but he’ll play alongside a renovated secondary and a fresh trio of starting linebackers.

Offensively senior Joe Viviano and sophomore Tommy Stewart are battling for the top quarterback spot. Last preseason Viviano broke his left foot, and he broke his right one during winter workouts; the injuries gave Stewart a chance to move up the depth chart, creating the current competition.

Certainly the Crimson returns key contributors—senior tight end Anthony Firkser and sophomore wide receiver Justice Shelton-Mosley will headline the aerial attack, while junior Larry Allen Jr. and senior Max Rich will anchor the offensive line.

But as training camp dawns, Harvard faces as many questions as answers.

“We’re used to setting the bar high, but this group [from 2015] was really special,” Murphy said. “To lose that nucleus…is a little bit daunting and certainly unprecedented for us.”

Penn, 119 points (nine first-place votes)

A seasoned quarterback. A dangerous group of receivers, highlighted by a speedy first option. A powerful inside linebacker.

In 2015 the Crimson rode this combination to first-place success; in 2016 Penn hopes to duplicate the feat.

The Quakers boast senior quarterback Alek Torgersen, the projected Ivy League Offensive Player of the Year, and junior wideout Justin Watson, the lone conference star to be mentioned as a possible FCS Offensive Player of the Year. Even behind a diminished offensive line, the Torgersen-Watson combination is surely the most explosive in the league.

Although the defense will lose linebacker Tyler Drake, who won Ivy League Defense Player of the Year last season, Penn can take solace in remaining linebacker Donald Panciello. Despite missing a week in 2015, the then-junior finished second in tackles.

Even special teams promises improvement, as junior punter Hunter Kelley and senior kicker Jimmy Gammill return.

Already loaded with talent in 2015, Penn enters this fall with new experience, not to mention a hunger for an undisputed title.

Dartmouth, 83 points

“A lot of new faces…. We did graduate a good number of people that were significant players.”

So began coach Buddy Teeven’s assessment of his 2016 squad. As with Harvard, Dartmouth must cope with a great deal of turnover, including the graduation of 10 of 11 defensive starters, supernova quarterback Dalyn Williams, and top receiver Victor Williams.

Senior linebacker Folarin Orimolade is the lone holdover from the 2015 defense, and according to College Sports Madness, he’s slated to be Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year. Beyond on-field performance, Orimolade—who is one of three captains—will shoulder leadership responsibilities.

Offensively junior Jack Heneghan and sophomore Bruce Dixon IV will duke it out for the top quarterback role; whoever triumphs will have the benefit of playing alongside junior Ryder Stone, the 205-pound running back who led the program in rushing yards last year.

Such a roster refresh presents real difficulties, but in a teleconference, Teevens sounded a hopeful note.

“Philosophically we like to play a lot of people,” he said. “[There’s] a lot of enthusiasm and excitement. Guys see an opportunity to compete and play.”

Yale, 81 points

Per coach Tony Reno, the central theme of Yale’s preseason is competition—not against other teams but within a deep Bulldogs program.

“For the first time since we’ve been here as staff, we’ve got competition at every level,” he said. “Our approach in the offseason was to get better, specifically in the strength area.”

The most evident site of competition is the quarterback role, where four contenders will vie to replace Morgan Roberts. In his three years with the program, Roberts racked up more passing yards (6,182) than any other Yale graduate.

Matters are more settled on defense, as 12 of the top 14 tacklers on the team will suit up in 2016. Complimenting this contingent is senior Foyesade Oluokon, an All-Ivy safety in 2014 who sat out last year with an injury.

Still, a year after finishing fourth, the Bulldogs face a stiff task in leapfrogging the reigning tri-champions.

Princeton, 79 points

Versatile athleticism defines this year’s Princeton team.

First there is John Lovett, a first-team All-Ivy selection last year. Sometimes lining up as a dual-threat quarterback, the junior will take snaps at running back this season, hoping to match his 6.5 yard-per-carry average in 2015.

Then there is Charlie Volker. Last December the then-freshman, who also competes for the track team, broke the school record in the 60-yard dash. Such speed will be on display come September, as Volker will share carries with Lovett.

Senior quarterback Chad Kanoff holds the keys to this high-powered offense, and coach Bob Surace has indicated that, in keeping with past years, the team will play up-tempo.

Whether the defense can keep up with this frenetic pace is a different question. But the Tigers sport impressive depth in the front seven, giving reason to believe that Princeton will be a tough out this season.

Brown, 61 points (one first-place vote)

By most measures, last season’s Harvard-Brown matchup—which ended as a 53-27 Crimson rout—was not an entertaining contest. It was, however, a revealing glimpse into the Bears’ future.

In the second half of that game, then-junior Kyle Moreno relieved starter Marcus Fuller and put on a fine performance, totaling 307 yards on 20-of-31 passing. This year Moreno returns as Brown’s true starter, and he’ll likely spend a lot of time connecting with senior wide receiver Alexander Jette, the Bears’ lone selection on the 2015 All-Ivy first team.

Also in that Harvard beatdown, a young defensive unit held the Crimson scoreless in the final 20 minutes of play. Led by senior defensive end Richard Jarvis, that unit returns mostly intact for 2016.

However, the true strength of this season’s Bears was on display throughout all of 2015, rout or not. That strength is the offensive line, which returns all five starters this year.

Averaging close to 300 pounds per person, this wall of large men will aim to ensure that Brown finishes .500 or better for the tenth straight year.

Columbia, 43 points

Last season play-calling duties for Columbia alternated between Florida transfer Skyler Mornhinweg and then-sophomore Anders Hill. This two-faced monster will rear its head again in 2016, except Mornhinweg and Hill will be a year older.

While quarterbacks matter, perhaps the most important returning member of the Lions is the man who sits above Mornhinweg and Hill, namely coach Al Bagnoli. Prior to last season, the Penn legend made headlines by un-retiring to revive a hapless Columbia program.

One season and two wins later, the verdict is in: Not even Bagnoli can work immediate miracles. Yet the 2015 squad made obvious progress, posting the first conference win since 2012 and falling to Harvard and Dartmouth by a combined 12 points.

It will be up to Mornhinweg, Hill, and a slew of other veterans to further the process that Bagnoli has started. On defense seniors Keith Brady (linebacker), Gianmarco Rea (linebacker), and Christian Conway (defensive back) will play an especially instrumental role as the Lions continue their long march to relevance.

Cornell, 20 points

It’s possible to spin Cornell’s season outlook in two ways.

On one hand, the Big Red owns arguably the best player in the conference, a rising senior who has shattered Ivy League competition and earned preseason attention as a potential second-team All-American.

On the other hand, that player is a punter.

Yes, Chris Fraser has performed at a remarkable level for Cornell, but the team has not returned the favor. Last year, the Big Red won a single game (against Columbia), and barring a preseason turnaround, the team seems at risk of a similarly dismal showing.

Gone is Luke Hagy, the bruising running back who carried Cornell’s offense from time to time; at training camp, four or five players will compete to replace him.

The Big Red also sports competition at the quarterback position, although sophomore Dalton Banks has the upper hand heading into the season.

Hope springs more freely on defense, as senior linebackers Jackson Weber and Miles Norris provide a core of strength up the middle. Even so, given the depth of other teams, Cornell faces an uphill battle in Ancient Eight play.

–Staff writer Sam Danello can be reached at sam.danello@thecrimson.com.