A New Path for Venezuela

Last Sunday, Venezuela re-elected President Hugo Chavez to a new six-year term by a margin of 10 points, potentially keeping his socialist agenda in place through 2018. Though challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski came closer to dethroning Chavez

than anyone had previously, 10 points still represents a gap of over one million votes. If anything, we can expect Chavez to be even bolder in this next term, as he will use his victory as a way to legitimize his “Bolivarian Revolution.”

The opposition now faces a more daunting task than ever if it wants to reach the presidency and push its own agenda. Capriles’ own campaign slogan, “Hay un Camino”—“There is a Path”—seems like nothing more than a far-off dream at this point. But the task is not impossible. If Capriles and his allies want to rebuild Venezuela their way by eliminating government inefficiency and corruption and promoting economic growth, their biggest challenge will be transforming the coalition of opposition parties into a permanent party, while still gaining support from those who voted for Chavez this election cycle.

Six years ago, Venezuela’s presidential candidates consisted of Hugo Chavez, challenger Manuel Rosales, and a myriad of other, unorganized candidates with similar policy positions to Mr. Rosales. Due to the presence of several opposition parties Chavez trounced that vote by 26 points, effectively destroying Rosales’ career. In 2012, Capriles managed to consolidate the opposition into the closest Venezuela has had to a true opposition party in years. It was no longer Chavez against everyone else, but rather Chavez against Capriles. The former governor of Miranda was able to garner such support in part because of the hope he was able to generate for Venezuela. Now that he lost by such a large margin, it will be difficult for Capriles to convince his followers that real gains were made, or that it is worth remaining in a coalition.

Capriles does, however, have one reason to celebrate: Venezuela has gubernatorial elections in December, and Capriles has already started to energize the opposition into maintaining the coalition through the elections. Capriles has also already begun his campaign to regain his old job as governor of Miranda, where he will be opposing Elias Jaura, the Vice President during Chavez’s last term. If Capriles wins, he can use these elections as a way to show the Venezuelan people that the opposition is capable of winning an election against one of Chavismo’s most recognizable faces. Victories in the gubernatorial elections, where the opposition has historically done far better than in the presidential campaigns, could make the coalition a more permanent fixture in Venezuelan politics, a crucial detail if anyone is to defeat Chavismo in the near future.

Of course, simply maintaining their position will not be enough to win over control of the nation. Seven million citizens voted for Hugo Chavez in 2012, so there are still gains that must be made. There are massive logistical issues to making inroads among voters; now out of the national spotlight and running for governor, it will be more difficult for Capriles to reach out to the public. But, just as he did in his campaign, Capriles can cite issues such as rising inflation, corruption in government, and crime rates as reasons to support his opposition party. If Capriles can get over the logistical obstacles, he may be able to improve the opposition party’s standing among the electorate, and thus increase their chances of winning a subsequent presidential election.

Capriles also must be ready to launch a presidential campaign at any moment in the next four years. If Chavez, who has battled cancer and undergone three surgeries in Cuba since June 2011, dies or is forced to leave office (for medical reasons, for instance) at any point in the next four years, the constitution dictates the Vice President has 30 days to organize a nationwide presidential election. With no heir apparent to Chavez, it would be far easier for Capriles to win the presidency up against the new Chavista candidate than if he were to run against Chavez himself again in 2018. Though Capriles has wisely wished Chavez good health and long life on the campaign trail, it is an unfortunate truth that his greatest chance at being elected president in the next decade or so lies in the death of Venezuela’s current president.

The opposition party in Venezuela was dealt a major blow last weekend. But the fact of the matter is, Capriles has managed to consolidate the opposition in a way that has not been seen since Chavez took the presidency. If Capriles can continue to lead the opposition, and make gains among those who voted for Chavez in 2012, we may just see a path for Venezuela after all.

Julian Atehortua ’15, a Crimson editorial writer, lives in Leverett House.