Romney Leads New Hampshire Race In IOP Poll

A poll conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics has former Mass. Governor W. Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential primary race in New Hampshire, with 38 percent of likely voters supporting him.

Romney leads in the state—traditionally the first state to hold presidential primaries—by 18 points, with businessman Herman Cain following at 20 percent and Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 13 percent.

The poll surveyed 648 likely voters and was conducted in partnership with Saint Anselm College, located in Manchester, N.H.

Romney, who graduated from Harvard with dual law and business degrees, is largely considered the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Despite his status as the front-runner, the Republican political field is still considered highly contested.

In the last few months, several candidates have arisen as potential competitors, including Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele M. Bachmann.

But in the poll, both Perry and Bachmann showed considerably weaker numbers than Romney, ranking sixth and seventh respectively.

IOP Director C. M. Trey Grayson ’94 attributed Perry and Bachmann’s weak performance to their lack of campaigning in New Hampshire.

“The candidates certainly differ on tone and style, but they agree on most things. The fact that they’re viewed so unfavorably in New Hampshire is very telling,” Grayson said.

But Grayson also said Bachmann and Perry’s low numbers are indicative of a larger narrative, emphasizing that Republican voters are still uncertain about the Republican lineup.

“If we had done this poll a month ago, I would have assumed Perry would be a lot higher,” Grayson said. “But we’ve seen that he’s lost a lot of what he had in the early polls. The question is whether he’s up to speed on the issues.”

The poll is part of the IOP’s broader initiatives to prepare for the 2012 campaign, said IOP President Jeffrey F. Solnet ’12.

Solnet said the IOP is also in the midst of producing a student-led report on the “Millennial” generation’s views on the election and the state of the country.

—Staff writer Jose A. DelReal can be reached at jdelreal@college.harvard.edu.