Pundits Predict Obama Victory

Many Harvard experts have predicted that today’s presidential election will bring a certain victory for Barack Obama.

The national election polls yesterday showed Obama leading by a margin of about 10 percent. And Harvard pundits from the College, the Kennedy School, the Law School, and the Institute of Politics said in e-mailed statements that this lead was unlikely to disappear when ballots were cast today.

Government and African and African American Studies professor Jennifer L. Hochschild said, “Obama will win (no surprise!).”

Cass R. Sunstein ’75, a law professor and informal adviser to Obama, also predicted a Democratic victory, basing his opinion on the current polls.

Some professors, optimistic about Obama’s chance of victory, said young voters will have a significant impact on the outcome of today’s election.

“This victory is also telling for the burst of participation and enthusiasm we are seeing from voters, especially young people,” said government and sociology professor Theda R. Skocpol.

Former Iowa Governor and current IOP Fellow Thomas J. Vilsack, who said he was less certain about the election results, also highlighted the importance of the youth vote.

“The outcome in my view depends on the turnout of voters 18-29 years of age,” he said.

Fortunately for Vilsack, The Crimson’s Election Survey found that nearly 80 percent of Harvard students said they planned to vote for Obama today.

But some Harvard experts said Obama might win by a narrower margin than current polls are predicting.

Jeffrey A. Frankel, an economics professor at the Kennedy School, said he believes Americans will overcome the issues of age and race to elect Obama because they value competence and intelligence. But, he added, “I would have to say Obama [will win], though perhaps not with the big landslide margin that some others are predicting.”

Professors said they believe McCain is unlikely to win for several reasons, especially, according to Frankel, because of a general mistrust in the Republican Party stemming from the Bush administration’s failures in the past eight years.

“Senator McCain, closely linked to an unpopular president...has underestimated the angst people in America have with the Republican brand,” Vilsack said.

Putting it simply, Hochschild said, “McCain has run a poor campaign.”

Law professor Alan M. Dershowitz said McCain lowered his chances of capturing the independent vote by adding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the ticket.

“Independents had their intelligence insulted and their security endangered by McCain’s selection of an incompetent as his running mate,” Dershowitz said.

Whatever the outcome of the race, Skocpol said, today marks “one of the most momentous electoral contests and a key turning point in the history of U.S. democracy.”