Potential Hurricane Victims Say They Would Refuse Order To Evacuate

As the Southeastern United States finds itself in the midst of another hurricane season, a new study suggests that residents of hurricane-prone counties are relaxing their guard.

A recent survey conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) “Project on the Public and Biological Survey” highlights the inadequacies of hurricane preparedness in eight states with high hurricane risk counties.

Over 30 percent of residents said that they would not leave if government officials said they had to evacuate due to a major hurricane. In a similar survey conducted in 2006, only 23 percent of people said they would not evacuate. The study, which the HSPH developed in consultation with government and Red Cross officials, was designed to assess problems residents had during past hurricanes and attitudes towards upcoming emergencies.

Residents in counties within 20 miles of the coast were surveyed in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas.

Robert J. Blendon, a professor of health policy and political analysis at the Kennedy School of Government, said that the amount by which the figure rose since last year was surprising.

“We thought after Katrina that we wouldn’t see any change in the share of people who wouldn’t like to leave,” Blendon said.

Many residents seemed to view staying in the house safer than evacuating. About 75 percent of those who would not leave said they believed they’d be safe in their home, while 56 percent worried about crowded roads and over a third felt that evacuating would be dangerous. Blendon said that evacuation is even more critical for residents of mobile homes, despite the fact that one survey question revealed that one in four people living in mobile homes within 20 miles of the ocean said they would refuse to leave.

“It’s hard to believe that when a mobile home is hit by a level three storm you won’t be in trouble,” Blendon said.

He conceded, however, that there had been problems with evacuation in the past. People trying to evacuate have had difficulty getting to gas stations and dealing with congested highways, Blendon said.

The study also highlighted the larger proportion of minority families in need of evacuation help that do not have their evacuation arrangements made. Only 3 percent of white residents who need help don’t have their plans made, compared to 17 percent of African-Americans and 10 percent of Latino-Americans.

Blendon suggests that more communities follow Houston’s lead and establish sign-ups for residents who need help to evacuate before the emergencies occur.

“The history we have in countries like the Netherlands and Norway with frequent flooding is that if you don’t want to see pictures of people trapped and drowning, you need to go in and get people to sign up if they need help ahead of time,” he said. “These

pictures will reoccur over and over again otherwise, because a large share of people cannot get out by themselves.”

—Staff writer Madeline K.B. Ross can be reached at mross@fas.harvard.edu.