Panel Splits on War Chances

Panelists at last night’s John F. Kennedy, Jr. Forum panel discussion on whether a United States-Iran conflict is inevitable disagreed about the probability of war, but agreed that the idea that Iran could soon possess a nuclear weapon is “doubtful.”

According to Vali R. Nasr, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and senior fellow of the Kennedy School’s Dubai initiative, the possibility of outright attack is “fairly high.”

“With each country being tough on the other side, showing a growling, uncompromising face, there is a great chance that either side will overreach,” he said.

But Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow on the Council of Foreign Relations, said that Congressional skepticism, President Bush’s low popularity, and international opposition would restrain American aggression.

“The chances of attack are almost nonexistent,” he said.

Moderated by Graham T. Allison ’62, director of the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the panel of foreign policy experts discussed Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and the interplay between the two country’s interests and foreign policies to over two hundred spectators last night.

The panelists agreed that Iran is far from building a nuclear weapon.

“The Iranians have had significant difficulty in getting their initial, much smaller cascades working—they overheat, they break down,” said Washington Post columnist David R. Ignatius ’73, who is also a Crimson editor. “They can’t run them continuously.”

Despite the apparent tension, panelists said the two countries share similar interests.

“Who are [Iran’s] top three enemies?” Allison said. “Saddam Hussein? We took him out. The Taliban? We took them out. Bin Laden? We’re going after him. Before that, who was your greatest enemy? The Soviet Union. You guys owe us.”

Allison added that if he were in the Bush Administration, he would tell Iran that the time had come for America “to collect.”

But Steve Miller, director of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center, said that Iranians feel they have done enough to create an alliance between the two countries.

“We supported you after 9/11, especially against the Taliban,” said Miller, speaking from the Iranian perspective. “We thought we had begun to make strides, but then we couldn’t have been more shocked by this ‘axis of evil’ speech.”

“The majority [of Iranian diplomats] feel it is a fruitless pursuit,” he said.

After the panel, one student said the discussion was thought-provoking.

“Tonight it became very clear, in talking about the leverage other countries can exert over the United States, the extent to which there is multi-polarity in the world,” said Ari S. Ruben ’08. “This bone-headed administration has wasted its opportunity to have influence.”