It's Getting Hot in Here: Global Warming Hits the Hub

In a century’s time, Harvard Square may find itself entirely submerged in the waters of the Charles River, according to a study that is gaining widespread attention because of the devastating floods in Massachusetts last month.

The three-year-long study, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, anticipates frequent torrential rains and flooding for the Boston area in 100 years if climate change is left unchecked. The team of 10 scientists who conducted the study, “Climate’s Long-term Impacts on Metro Boston,” also found that Boston’s average temperature will rise dramatically, with as many as 30 days a year eclipsing the 95-degree mark.

The consequences of this could be sweeping, according to the report, including storms of greater magnitude causing sewer flooding, sea-level increase, and even the flourishing of insect populations due to heat and humidity.

Paul H. Kirshen, the Tufts professor who managed the project, said he and his team of researchers generated several graphics depicting Boston-area landmarks in the aftermath of a storm a century from now—one of which showed an inundated Square.

“A wave would go over the Charles River dam,” Kirshen said. But, he added, “the flooding would not be permanent.”

A team of professors at Boston University who co-authored the study, led by geographers William P. Anderson and Tiruvarur R. Lakshmanan, investigated how automotive transport will be affected by these climatic disruptions.

“Whenever you have a major storm event, you have major delays in people’s travel,” Anderson said.

The researchers estimate aggregate traffic delays, measured in hours, under two scenarios—one with no climate change, and a second with climate-change-induced flooding. They found that climate change would increase aggregate traffic delays by 80 percent over the next century.

Researchers initially gauged climatic trends for the first 25 years of this century and then multiplied the results by four in order to make long-term forecasts, according to Lakshmanan.

But Anderson said these forecasts are speculative.

“You would never dream of using them for more than a five-year prediction,” he said. “We always avoid predictions. Nobody knows what the state of technology is going to be.”

Kirshen said that their findings are still alarming.

“If we don’t take action now, it could become very expensive to live in the region,” he said. “The amount it changes will depend on how we act in the next 50 years.”

The study considered three potential responses to climate change: the head-in-the-sand approach, which involves taking no action; the structural approach, which involves reacting to imminent damage; and the “green” approach, which includes using preventative measures.

Whichever approach the city opts to employ, Anderson said that addressing climate change is a global responsibility.

“Boston is not particularly special,” he said. “We used models which could be used in other cities, where the impacts could be worse.”

—Staff write Noah S. Bloom can be reached at nsbloom@fas.harvard.edu.