BLOG POST: Penn Leads Ivies Once Again, But That's Where Similarites End

For the second consecutive year, the events of the second weekend in February could change the Ivy League debate from “who” to “what”.

When the dust settles on this upcoming weekend, Penn could be a full three games ahead of its closest competition, causing the question of who will win the Ivy title to be replaced with inquiries about what seed the Quakers will receive.

Penn came into the second weekend in February at 5-0 last year, fresh off a stunning 18-point comeback over the final eight minutes of the game against Princeton. Cornell was the lone Ivy team in striking distance at 4-2, and after beating the Tigers to move to 5-2, it visited the Quakers on Saturday night.

The Big Red grabbed a 26-22 lead at the break, seemingly giving life to a dead league race, but Penn blew past Cornell in the second half for an easy 14-point win.

With half the season left, Penn was a full three games clear in the loss column, and the focus shifted to RPI and possible first-round NCAA matchups.

While the similarities between the two seasons are striking, it takes a trained eye to see the differences that are hidden under the surface.

After dispensing with the Big Red to move to 7-0 last season, the Quakers really only had three threatening games left on their schedule (at Yale, at Cornell, and at Princeton). Even if Penn sweeps this weekend’s games, the Quakers will still have four threatening games remaining (both meetings with Princeton, at Yale and at Cornell).

But this year’s threatening games are even more so than last year, considering that Yale started off 1-3 in the Ivies last season and Princeton stumbled out to a 1-4 mark. Cornell held the same 4-2 mark through six games that it does this year, but last year’s hot start was in part due to the fact that the Big Red had to play just one road game during that span.

The next major difference between this year and last is the number of teams still in the race. Cornell was the last team standing in the way of Penn and its NCAA berth last season, and while the Big Red is once again alive, two games back of the Quakers in the loss column, the squad is joined by Princeton and Harvard, nipping at Penn’s heels. While it is entirely possible that Penn could be up three games on all three of those teams by Sunday, it will take a more complicated chain of events (specifically Cornell splitting at Brown and Yale, Princeton getting swept by Harvard and Dartmouth, and Penn sweeping the Crimson and Big Green) than last season’s “beat Cornell and it’s all over.”

For illustrative purposes, had the Quakers lost to both the Big Red and Lions at home last year, they would have only fallen to second place, just a half-game behind Cornell, while remaining tied with the Big Red in the loss column. This year, if Penn gets swept on Harvard-Dartmouth road trip, the Quakers could fall into a four-way tie for second or a two-way tie for third and could drop a game behind in the loss column.

Many folks will point to Penn’s 25 point average margin of victory as a sign that no one in the league can play with the Quakers. Last year’s team won its first four games by an average of 21 points (including two on the road) before winning its next two contests in overtime and by eight in regulation, taking its next two by double-digits, and then falling by 18 at Yale.

In other words, there’s precedent for Penn falling back down a bit closer to earth as the season wears on. And that tumble could be more drastic for a squad that after playing its last seven in the friendly confines of The Palestra now must take to the road for seven of its final 10 Ivy contests.

There is no doubt that Penn is still the prohibitive favorite to claim the Ivy title, and that the sequence of events which would leave the Quakers up three with just half the season left to play is arguably the most likely outcome for this weekend.

But with the rebirth of Princeton and Harvard, the return of Cornell, and the shadowy presence of Yale, that's where the similarities between the two years end.