HMS Study Predicts Disease

Harvard Medical School (HMS) has released a study saying that global warming could cause a significant spread of asthma, infectious diseases, and heat wave deaths over the next several decades. But one professor at the School of Public Health expressed skepticism about some of the study’s findings.

The study, conducted by the Center for Health and the Global Environment at HMS, forecasted that the area suitable for tick habitat will quadruple over the next 80 years as a result of climate change.

The study also warned about the potential spread of West Nile virus, which never appeared in the United States before the summer of 1999, when it led to seven deaths in New York City.

But Professor of Tropical Public Health Andrew Spielman said that “global warming has no role in the proliferation of the West Nile virus and Lyme disease. The Lyme disease hypothesis lacks data and doesn’t make sense.”

Spielman also said that the study’s warning about the spread of malaria “is a bit of a stretch.” The study forecasted that suffering from malaria would increase by more than 100 percent in Ethiopia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe later this century.

A spokeswoman for the center, Kathleen Frith, declined to comment on Spielman’s assertions, except to say that “we completely disagree” and that the relevant supporting data could be found in the study.

Meanwhile, Spielman noted that he had not examined the study in detail and that he based his comments on prior knowledge as well as a brief survey of the study’s findings. He said that his comments should be taken as skepticism—but not as a categorical denial of—the results.

The lead author of the study, Paul R. Epstein, an instructor at HMS, said in a statement that climate change could lead to disasters that would be “comparable” to the devastation of Hurricane Katrina.

Firth emphasized, though, that “Hurricane Katrina was not a result of climate change” and was merely an example of the ripple effects that could potentially occur as a result of an increase in extreme weather.

The authors of the study said their work was unique because it analyzed the impact of climate change over the next decade, while most other research emphasizes longer-term effects.

The study reported that a heat wave this past July produced record high temperatures in several American cities. The study also analyzed the heat wave that scorched Europe in the summer of 2003, finding that if an analogous wave hit New York City in the near future, nearly 3,000 people could die.

The study recommended, among other precautions, neighborhood response plans “to transport isolated persons to facilities with adequate air conditioning,” such as malls and movie theaters.

More generally, the study presented a two-level approach to reduce the risks of climate change. The first level, “direct mitigation,” includes, among other measures, increasing monitoring of extreme weather hazards and distributing bed nets to curb the spread of malaria, Firth said.

“The second level is to foster policies that promote oil independence, renewable resources, and ultimately a reduction in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, which addresses the root of the problem,” she added.

The three-year study was sponsored by insurer Swiss Re and the United Nations Development Programme. The results were released on Nov. 1 at the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and are posted online at www.climatechangefutures.com.