No-Brainers No More: Spreads Complicate Weekend

Like Brown running back Nick Hartigan, Around the Ivy League caught fire last week, nailing four of the five contests, including two right on the number, to move to 10-7 on the season.

Let’s be honest, though­: it doesn’t take much skill to pick Columbia to lose. But throw 30 points the Lions’ way, and you’ll still pick them to lose, you might think about it a bit longer.

In that spirit, we’ve added a new wrinkle to Around the Ivy League. From now on, games will be selected based on the spreads provided by a popular internet wagering site that won’t be given free publicity in this space. With that short public service announcement out of the way, let’s get to the games.

GAME OF THE WEEK:

DARTMOUTH (+10) at YALE

The Big Green has officially become the first beneficiary of the new “against the spread” format.

Dartmouth coach Buddy Teevens has done a lot with a little—and even less with tailback Chad Gaudet sidelined since the season opener—while the Bulldogs have explored the flip side of that expression with their 1-2 start.

The Yale offense has provided fans and prognosticators with nothing but frustration thus far, as it followed up a 37-point explosion against Cornell with a three-quarter-long nap against Holy Cross before scrambling for 19 in the fourth to make a game of it.

Maybe Yale is just saving it all up for the Ivy schedule. Maybe Bulldogs coach Jack Siedlecki doesn’t see the vultures circling over head. Or maybe Yale is just disinterested with winning.

It’s always dangerous to pick Yale, but it’s ridiculous to have to give up double-digit points to do it. The Big Green lacks the experience to win on the road, but staying within 10 isn’t too much to ask.

BUCKNELL at PENN (-17.5)

Pity is the only enemy of those taking the Quakers and laying the points on the table.

The Bison enter the contest without the services of their top two quarterbacks. Last week, their starter under center was a converted cornerback who ran for 268 yards and three scores while attempting just two passes.

Bucknell is averaging just 45 yards per game through the air, though most of those were earned before its quarterback depth chart was amended to include room numbers at the local hospital.

Penn’s rushing defense, ranked third in the nation, will shut down the Bison ground game, and the backup Bucknell punter Ryan Korn—who assumed the role after the starter Phil Azarik came down with mononucleosis—will probably pull a hamstring cleaning up after the three-and-outs. If the Quakers so desired, they could win by 50. Restraint and sportsmanship could cut that number almost in half, but Penn will easily cover the points.

FORDHAM at BROWN (-21)

Hartigan is going to have a field day against the Rams. The All-American Brown rusher just put up 252 yards on Rhode Island, the 74th ranked rushing defense in the nation, and now he gets to face a Fordham squad that sits eight spots back in that category.

Hartigan should have little trouble getting to 200 in this contest, and the Bears should have little trouble beating a terrible Rams squad by more than 21.

COLGATE (+7.5) at PRINCETON

This contest could be the clincher in the Ivy-Patriot series, as wins by heavy favorites Brown and Penn and a victory by the Tigers in this one would put the Ancient Eight up 9-4 with just four games left between the two leagues.

Princeton enters the game fresh off a 43-3 romp over lowly Columbia and holds the title of the Ivy League’s lone remaining unbeaten.

These facts are nice, but they are also deceptive. The Tigers still have a shaky quarterback situation, they lack a standout wide receiver, and, aside from last weekend’s matchup with the Lions, they have had trouble moving the ball in general.

Princeton’s staunch defense—the eighth best in the nation—will keep the game close and give the Tigers a chance to pull out the win. A victory is one thing, but covering the points is another, so take Colgate and the touchdown.

COLUMBIA at LAFAYETTE (-16)

After slipping past two mediocre I-AA squads to open up the season 2-0, the Lions got slaughtered at Princeton last weekend, finally putting to rest the preposterous claims that Columbia was poised for some sort of dramatic revival.

Reality Check No. 2 comes this weekend.

The Leopards aren’t quite as good as the Tigers, and the Lions shouldn’t enter the game with any hint of over-confidence, as might have been the case last week. But it’s hard to win if you can’t score, and Lafayette has the 11th best defense in the nation, while Columbia counters with the eighth worst offense.

The primary question is whether the Leopards can score enough to cover. They’ve been scoring almost three touchdowns a game thus far, and that should be enough in this one.

­—Staff writer Michael R. James can be reached at mrjames.com.