It All Comes Down to This

We are approaching a turning-point in Iraq. The January 30th elections will put the country on one of two paths. While the elections are not likely to have a dramatic immediate effect on the situation on the ground, in the long term the path Iraq takes is predicated on their outcome. Either the elections will be widely participated in and viewed as legitimate, leading to a slowly improving security situation, or they will be viewed as an American imposition and will lead to an eventual failure of the Iraqi state.

The mess-hall bombing of December 21st and the January 6th roadside bombing of a Bradley fighting vehicle stand out as two of the most glaring examples of how much work remains to be done in making Iraq passably secure even for our own troops. There is a tendency for events such as this to lead to a sense of exasperation, of hopelessness: if Iraq is no more secure three weeks before its election than it was six or seven months ago than do we really have any hope for victory? Yes we do, but if we loose our nerve at this critical juncture we will loose it. If the elections fail the situation in Iraq could become truly untenable, and we could face the geopolitical nightmare of a volatile, failed, and likely terrorist-run state at the heart of one of the world’s most strategically important regions.

The situation in Iraq is complex and extremely volatile. Although we commonly hear Iraq compared to other modern insurgencies such as Vietnam, the situation we face today is unique in military history. While it seems as if the almost-daily attacks in Iraq are scattered throughout the country, in reality the insurgent are largely confined to a single Sunni dominated area. Additionally, while the attacks on United States military personnel receive the most coverage, they are not the target of the majority of violence. Rather, the attacks are carried out on an assortment of totally innocent civilians: Iraqis working with the Coalition forces, or foreign aid workers with no connection to the Western military presence.

True some attacks, such as that upon the U.S. mess-hall, bear the hallmarks of the dreaded popular insurgency against foreign occupation and are cause for serious concern. However, it is easy to forget, because of their low media coverage in the U.S., that the bloodiest and most frequent attacks are not at Iraqi civilians. Attacks such as the early December massacre of eighteen young Shiite men, the January 2nd bombing of a National Guard bus or the January 5th bombing of a police graduation ceremony show that the insurgents do not enjoy the widespread popular support sometimes claimed but rather are resorting to fear-inducing attacks to cow the population into submission. Attacks on Iraqi civilians often yield as many casualties as an entire month’s combat operations for United States forces. Alternately kidnapping, beheading, blowing up, or shooting in the back of the head the people whose “hearts and minds” you are trying to win is not exactly a recipe for success.

However while indiscriminate terror is not a recipe for long-term success in governing a country, if carried out viciously enough it most certainly can derail a democratic election. The ability of the insurgents to stir up enough violence to either delay or render useless the upcoming election is the most immediate and serious threat we face. Whether you supported the war or not it seems clear that the best outcome now is for a democratically governed Iraq, and the next several weeks will determine whether or not this is a possibility.

We should expect the insurgents to throw their worst at us, and judging from their previous conduct we can expect the week of elections to be violent and bloody. As hard as it will be to bare any additional American casualties, we should not despair. We can, and I believe will, prevail in Iraq but only if we fortify ourselves and realize that next week might very likely be the most destabilized time seen since the end of major combat operations. Changing a country from a totalitarian dictatorship to a democracy is a radical step, and the first election will be the most difficult. Over 1,300 Americans have given their lives in Iraq; over the coming weeks we will be given the opportunity to make their sacrifice meaningful.

Mark A. Adomanis ’07, a Crimson editorial editor, is a government concentrator in Eliot House.