LOVE IT OR LEEVE IT: Making Sense of the Madness

Who’s not up for a little betting action every now and then?

I’m not talking about the weekly card game with your friends, which inevitably increases in frequency until you realize it’s draining your bank account dry. Not the occasional trip to the dog track, where rumor has it a dog raced under the name “Brenda Leestar.” Not the sure-to-be-addictive online gambling that will leave you with credit-card debt and shame your family.

I’m talking March Madness. Ah, the madness, a one-shot opportunity for unexpected riches. With just a five-dollar buy-in, you can see a big enough profit for, well, a new watch, like what I bought two years ago when I won.

First things first—find a pool (or eight) to enter. The great thing about the tourney is that everyone bets, even if they know absolutely nothing about sports, let alone college basketball. Never fear if you fall under this category, for picking tips are to follow.

You’ve got options: people you work with, friends from college, friends from home, your extended family, your current entryway, your house, your freshman proctor group, those stupid email lists that you joined freshman year which you’re too lazy to unsubscribe from…well, you get the point. Options abound.

One additional suggestion I have—pools by course. Small or big doesn’t matter. That way you have a greater chance of winning regardless of your picks by virtue of entering a bracket four times. Imagine classes like Brian Palmer’s Religion 1529 losing their touchy-feely sentiment because of the competitive juices of the 1,000 or so people who would still be in the running when we get to the Final Four.

I suppose such animosity would be out of tune with Idealism 101, so perhaps a class on game theory would be a more suitable platform for a pool. At any rate, you get the idea—enter and enter often.

Okay, now that you’re in, let’s focus on picks. For the most part, the early rounds will be dominated by rank. It’s far too rare for a 14-, 15- or 16-seed to advance past the first round to pick more than one upset. The exception to the rule is sticking with your favorite teams one round further than what’s reasonable, so God help you if you’re an Alabama State fan taking on No. 1 Duke. Same goes for those who have an unremitting hatred of certain colleges, like Duke or—perhaps more relevant for Harvard kids—Stanford.

The real fun is figuring out which Nos. 9 through 13 are worthy of your first round pick. You never know which team will be the Cinderella story of the year. The first round showcases one fairy tale (No. 15 Valpo) against the most famous (No. 2 Gonzaga).

Will it be No. 12 Manhattan over No. 5 Florida? Can No. 12 Murray St. overcome the arrest of two players for marijuana possession to beat No. 5 Illinois? What about No. 10 Dayton over No. 7 DePaul? No. 7 Xavier against No. 10 Louisville?

All four of the top seeds will not make the Final Four—it’s just a given. So you have to figure out a way to knock one, maybe two, out somewhere in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. In the end, you’re either going to pick teams randomly or work out some psychotic mathematical process of elimination that will likely leave you with the same outcome—finishing unspectacularly in your bracket and down five dollars.

So just fill out your bracket, tack it up on your wall and see how it shakes out. Just listen to another Lee (that is, Lee Ann Womack): “When you get the choice to sit it out or dance, I hope you [bet on the] dance.”

—Staff writer Brenda E. Lee can be reached at belee@fas.harvard.edu. Her column appears on alternate Wednesdays.