Record Rate of Students to Vote

College students will go to the polls in record numbers and a majority of them will cast their vote for Democratic nominee John F. Kerry, according to an Institute of Politics (IOP) poll released yesterday.

The poll found that 84 percent of students have already voted or said they will definitely vote by November 2. Fifty-two percent of all students polled said they will support Kerry, while only 39 percent will cast a vote for President Bush.

Eight percent are undecided and the remaining one percent will vote for third-party candidate Ralph Nader.

Student voters from 14 swing states will vote for Kerry by a margin of 55-38 percent, according to the survey.

IOP Director of Research David C. King, who served as the survey’s faculty adviser, said he thinks the students’ votes in these states could affect the outcome of the election.

“I think college students can be the key constituency to make a difference,” King said. “Students in swing states are far more likely to vote.”

The report states that historically about 60 percent of people who say they will vote actually turn out to the polls. King said he expects between 50 and 54 percent of college students to vote, which would mark a significant increase from four years ago, when 42 percent of eligible college students voted.

Forty-two percent of students labeled the economy as one of the two most important issues in determining who they would support for president, while 38 percent of students picked the war in Iraq.

IOP Survey Chair Jonathan S. Chavez ’05, who is a Democrat, said he thinks students lean toward Kerry because they are more concerned with the issues than with each candidate’s image.

“It seems that the issues they are concerned with are the ones that Bush gets into trouble with, such as Iraq and the economy,” he said.

But Elise M. Stefanik ’06, a Republican member of the survey group, said that students were drawn more by Kerry’s personality, which she said is not as tangible as the attributes for which Bush was rated higher.

Respondents said that Bush is more consistent in his policies, while Kerry better understands their problems.

More students also think that politics is relevant to them now than during the last presidential election, according to the poll. Eighty-six percent of students this year responded that politics is relevant to them this year, up from 68 percent in 2000.

Mariam F. Eskander ’05, a registered Democrat who said she plans to vote, attributes the increase in voter likelihood among college students to election awareness campaigns.

“I think that Dunk the Vote and Get Out the Vote are far more pervasive than they used to be,” she said.

A large majority of students reported feeling that they have some say in what the government does and that they actively care about who wins the presidency.

The poll also found that 28 percent of respondents use humourous news sources such as “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” to get campaign information, which is one percent more than turn to online newspapers or magazines. Eighteen percent check internet blogs.

The poll, conducted and analyzed by Schneiders/Della Volpe/Schulman, surveyed 1,202 students, with an overall margin of error of 2.8 percent.

The firm attempted to contact students who use mainly cell phones by purchasing a list of 5.2 million students’ contact information from a third party. Many pollsters have criticized some national polls for failing to adequately account for cell-phone voters.

According to King, the IOP survey group conducts polls every six months, but will perform another one immediately after the election to assess issues such as absentee ballots.

—Staff writer Monica M. Clark can be reached at mclark@fas.harvard.edu.