Sudden Death Adds More Than College Overtime System

Brenda Lee wants the NFL to change its overtime to the college system. She wants each team to get a chance. “It’s not fair!” she cries, “I want everyone to be happy, to take turns, to share!”

Well, this is professional football, where it’s too cool for school rules. (That sounded better in my head...)

Professional football is entertainment. Fans want drama. They want to root for the players on their fantasy teams. They want instant gratification for their 70 bucks. Sudden death overtime gives it to them. Whoever scores first, wins. BOOM! John Madden is excited!

The main argument against sudden death overtime is that the coin toss dictates who wins. Historically, the team that wins the coin toss wins 51 percent of the time. Whoa! 51 percent! Geez, that is unfair! But even for those who say 51 is not 50, and thus the system should be changed, there is an even more convincing argument.

There have been 330 overtime games from 1974 to last November. How many times did the team that won the coin toss score on its first possession? Only 93—that’s a mere 28 percent of time.

So most of the time, the team that wins the toss is not scoring. Now, people could make an argument that the team that kicks off probably starts in worse field position for their “response” drive than the team that won the toss. But the bottom line is, 28 percent is not high enough to make me think the system needs a complete overhaul.

In my opinion, the argument that NFL overtime needs to be changed is mostly intuitive, just like “small ball” wins games in baseball or the notion of “clutch” hitting. Neither is likely true—all the statistics say both prevailing thoughts are myths. But every year, analysts and fans alike continuously praise “manufacturing” runs just as they groan about the unjustness of a coin toss.

But if the NFL went to a college system, other problems would arise. Would the statistics count? Every historic NFL statistical record would soon fall—quarterbacks might throw five touchdowns in overtime, as teams go back and forth. Certainly, the 70-65 score would be much more common, as most NFL teams have the firepower to score from the 25-yard line (much more so than the average college team—I mean, just throw to Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, etc. four straight times and one pass is going to be caught).

Fantasy teams would be ruined by the extra points in an overtime—owners would be rooting for their players to tie games and not win them. Right now, statistics count in overtime because the sudden death rule only extends the game for a limited time.

To conclude, I offer an intermediate solution to the problem (if there is one, at all). How about creating a system where you have to win by four points?

Let me explain—the team that wins the toss must score a touchdown on its opening drive in order to win a sudden death victory. This would prevent the more common “drive down the field and kick a field goal” event that fans hate. Now, teams could still elect to do this, but they would then have to stop the opposing team, get the ball back, and kick another field goal to win.

This adds a new element of excitement to the game. Teams would probably go for it on fourth down more often, needing that touchdown to win.

In order to prevent ever-lasting overtimes, at the end of 15 minutes, whichever team was ahead would win. If the teams were tied, the game would end in a tie, just like the current system.

This system is much more real than the college plan, which is completely artificial. Starting at the 25-yard line is like a soccer shootout—the winning team is not winning the game based on what it did for the previous four quarters.

Winning by four also adds more strategy into the game. On 4th-and-20 from the 35, do I try for the field goal and hope I can hold the other team, thus getting the ball back for another shot? Or do I risk going for the end zone, despite my low odds? Most teams would probably pick the latter, which makes for more deep passes and creates a higher likelihood of turnovers—certain to be fan favorites.

—Staff writer Alex M. Sherman can be reached at sherman@fas.harvard.edu.