W. Hoops Awaits Tourney Seeding

Though this year’s Harvard women’s basketball team may not have matched the 1996-97 team’s undefeated Ivy record, it still has a claim as one of the most dominant teams in Ivy history.

The five-game Ivy margin of victory by Harvard (22-5, 13-1 Ivy) over second-place Penn (12-15, 8-6) and Cornell (14-13, 8-6) broke a school record and matched the league record.

The previous school best was held by the 1995-96 and 1996-97 teams, who each won the league by four games. Last year’s Penn squad is the only other team ever to win the Ivies by five games.

Harvard women’s basketball team already made history this year by becoming the earliest team in school history to clinch a share of the Ivy title.

Both of those records could easily be dismissed as indicative of the weakness of the league’s second-place teams. But it’s also indicative of how this year’s Harvard team didn’t simply win—it won in ways that crushed the spirit of its opponents.

NCAA Seeding Update

Harvard’s seeding fate, which will be announced live on ESPN at 5 p.m. Sunday, has gotten slightly clearer following recent conference tournament results.

Any doubt that Harvard will be seeded any lower than No. 14 in any of the four 16-team regionals essentially vanished on Wednesday when Bucknell beat Holy Cross for the Patriot League championship. That result guaranteed that eight teams with Rating Percentage Index (RPI) rankings outside of the top 100 in the nation will be in the NCAA tournament. Harvard, with an RPI ranking in the low 60s, would in all likelihood be seeded higher than those eight teams based on past selection committee precedents.

RPI rankings have been a remarkably good predictor of seeding in the lower quarter of the bracket. In the last two years, out of the 32 automatic qualifiers picked to fill the bottom quarter of the bracket, only three earned a seed worse than their RPI-projected seed.

So judging by the success of these projections, Harvard’s potential to be a No. 13 seed is high. As of Thursday morning, there were still four conferences—other than the eight previously mentioned—with no potential automatic qualifiers with an RPI above Harvard’s and two automatic qualifiers in a statistical dead heat with Harvard.

NCAA Hosting Update

The race to be one of the 16 host sites for the NCAA tournament is as hotly contested and unclear as ever in women’s basketball this year.

RPI has also been a solid predictor of hosting. Two years ago, 15 of the top 16 teams in the RPI hosted. Last year, 14 of the top 16 teams in the RPI hosted and no host had an RPI ranking below 18.

This much is clear: UConn, Tennessee, Duke, Oklahoma, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Purdue and Baylor appear to be fairly clear-cut choices for No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. As a No. 13 or 14 seed, Harvard would avoid having to play any of these teams and instead take on a No. 4 or No. 3 seed.

South Carolina, Iowa St. and Kansas St. are in good position for No. 3 seeds.

Texas, with a 14th-ranked RPI and wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma, should still have qualifications to be a third seed.

The outlook is fuzzier for the fourth seeds.

North Carolina, ranked 15th in the RPI, is the safest bet for a No. 4 seed.

The Big 12 has seven contenders for hosting, but two of them—Texas Tech and Colorado—are in trouble. Texas Tech’s 11 losses should be too much for the committee to overlook, and Colorado has the lowest RPI (18th) of any of the Big 12 teams.

A No. 3 seed is unlikely for the Florida International Golden Panthers, but a No. 4 seed is still an outside possibility given that no one else in the field really has an outstanding case for hosting.

Lousiana Tech is ranked in the top 10 of both the AP and Coaches poll, but ranks just 20th in the RPI and has no wins over any team in the top 40 of the RPI. Old Dominion is in a similar predicament, ranked 17th in the RPI, but only one win over a top 50 team in the RPI—No. 26 Penn State. Both teams would have to win their conference tournaments to have a legitimate chance.

Minnesota, the Big Ten regular season runner-up, may still be in contention to host despite a poor conference tournament performance. The Gophers do boast a quality win over Purdue which is better than most of the teams on the bubble for hosting.

If the key criteria in picking the fourth seeds are RPI and record against RPI top 50, then North Carolina, Florida International, Minnesota, and Colorado State have the best case for hosting.

So in summary, the possible destinations for Harvard are far and farther away, and where they go is anyone’s guess.