Making McCain a Contender

After Ariz. Sen. John S. McCain's recent victories in Arizona and Michigan, the Republican primary race has regained the status of an actual competition. Long-time frontrunner Tex. Gov. George W. Bush, startled by a drubbing in New Hampshire, won the South Carolina primary after claiming the antithetical mantles of a staunch right-winger and a reformer willing to buck party politics. Although Bush's maneuvers on reform are likely to be exposed as transparent, his move to the right will likely have lasting effects on his campaign, as future primaries will be less influenced by the votes of independents. A primary system that encourages candidates like Bush to appeal to the extremes of their party does a disservice to those candidates with more widely distributed support.

Bush's victory in South Carolina was less than pristine. His campaign there was marked by a number of missteps, most notably his opening speech at Bob Jones University, an institution notorious for its prohibition of interracial dating and for the anti-Catholic sentiments of its founder. Bush's seeming indifference to the institutional racism of his host was only the first indication of his new willingness to go to any lengths to win votes in the state, a willingness further evidenced by his attacks on McCain's voting record on veterans' issues. Running as a born-again Christian, Bush had another conversion in South Carolina, this time to the cause of campaign finance reform; his self-promotion as a "reformer with results" was startlingly disingenuous coming from an establishment candidate, especially as his proposed ban on soft money would place few limits on the contributions of wealthy individuals. Bush's website now spouts the phrase "reformer with results" so many times that it occasionally forgets to include verbs in its zeal to portray Bush as an outsider: "Of the major candidates, the only one who does not have a D.C. ZIP code." (Perhaps this technique is, in some way, a subtle reflection of the candidate.)

Yet McCain was not immune to the pandering virus. After all, both candidates flubbed the character test posed by the Confederate flag flying over the South Carolina state house, and the charges and countercharges of negative advertising have sullied the reputations of both candidates. However, McCain did emerge from his loss in South Carolina as a candidate who understood the realities of American politics. The religious right is not as strong nationwide as it is in South Carolina, and despite his conservative voting record in the Senate, McCain is the only candidate in the race, on either side, to have sought support from members of both major parties. In the Michigan primary, where McCain won a reasonably narrow victory, more Democrats and independents voted than Republicans.

McCain, however, still has an uphill battle to reach the nomination by courting independents. Michigan was one of the last significant primaries in which the votes of non-party members are counted; had only Republican votes counted toward delegates in Michigan, as will be the case in New York and California on March 7, Bush would have won by a 2-to-1 margin. The primary system tends to push candidates to the extremes, and Bush seems willing to go with the tide. To rebuild his base of support after his New Hampshire loss, Bush made a strong swerve to the right in South Carolina on issues like abortion. Evangelist Pat Robertson stumped for him in the Michigan race. Even McCain is polishing his conservative credentials, emphasizing yesterday that he is a "proud pro-life conservative Republican." It would be very unfortunate if the coming closed primaries allow party regulars to choose among weaker candidates who are willing to pander to the right.