Polls Don't Tell Whole Bradley Story

Months ago, Bill Bradley was the un-candidate.

Campaigning in California, he sat still and said little. He listened to small groups of voters, asked some questions and shook hands.

This is "retail politics," a genre of campaigning usually reserved for early battleground primary states like New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But other candidates don't do retail politics in California, the most populous state in the Union, which has historically conferred its electoral riches on candidates who blitz the state with advertising and large public appearances.

"I'm trying to do the campaigning in a different way...not taking polls...just going around and asking people what they think," Bradley says.

For the most part, even as his star rises in the polls, Bradley sticks to a maverick philosophy. Whether doing it his way can sustain his candidacy through the Democratic primaries remains to be seen.

The institutional advantages of Vice President Al Gore '69 are clear: he has the trappings of the vice-presidency, a large staff, four years of prime photo-ops, and most importantly, a wealth of superdelegates--unpledged Democratic dignitaries chosen directly by the party. And, unlike other candidates, Gore has enumerated specifics early.

For the most part, national polls reflect Gore's strength. A healthy majority of probable Democratic primary voters say they favor the vice president.

But in several key states, particularly in the Northeast, polls show that Bradley is gaining ground.

In Massachusetts, a September 5th WBZ poll found Gore and Bradley to be virtually tied. Two polls taken in New York show the same thing, and a recent poll taken among voters in New Hampshire shows Bradley slightly ahead.

Yet in other parts of the country, especially the South, Bradley lags behind.

Political analysts cite a number of factors for the mixed verdict in the polls.

Clinton fatigue, in particular, may be responsible for Gore's weakening support amongst stalwart Democrats in suburban areas.

In New York, says Lee M. Miringoff, who conducts polls for Marist College, Hillary Rodham Clinton's probable run for Senate isn't helping the vice president.

"For those suffering from Clinton fatigue, New York is getting a high dose right now," he says.

He also points to the Empire State's unique voters, who are receptive to independent thinkers, and who aren't afraid to challenge the status quo.

"Running to the liberal side of Al Gore," says Miringhoff, " a candidate is likely to create some attraction with New York Democrats."

Indeed, Bradley's supposed liberalism is seen by some on the Democratic left as a way to breathe new life into the party.

Surprisingly though, liberals haven't flocked to his campaign.

According to David Gergen, a former counselor to President Clinton and now a professor at the Kennedy School of Government, Bradley's support in New Hampshire comes not from the party's liberal base, but from independents.

Unlike most other states, New Hampshire allows voters not affiliated with political parties to vote in the primaries. Bradley has gained the endorsement of these voters--many of whom could easily vote for an unusual Republican candidate like Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as well, Miringhoff says.

Traditionally liberal constituencies such as teachers' unions, labor unions and members of minority groups still prefer Gore in the Granite State.

"New Hampshire is the most tangible manifestation that Bradley can be much more complex that any of us thought," Gergen says.

Race Matters

When asked about his most passionate issue, Bill Bradley will likely answer "race." He's known to quote Toni Morrison and to tell of the day he saw Congress debate the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He says that he'll always ask his political appointees to pay close attention to diversity. He strongly embraces affirmative action.

While Bradley has attracted the support of a number of prominent African-Americans, like Harvard's Fletcher University Professor Cornel R. West '74, the black electorate--traditionally progressive--has largely ignored him.

Nearly 70 percent of black voters say they support Gore, even in states like New York and New Hampshire.

If Bradley wants the backing of core liberal constituencies, he must look elsewhere.

He's tacked to the left on gun control, on gays in the military and on ethanol subsidies.

Luke P. McLoughlin '00, who has helped organize a group of Harvard students who support Bradley, says that the candidate's unabashedly liberal stands on issues like gun control will distinguish him from Gore come election time.

Bradley endorses gun registration and wants to mandate training for prospective owners of firearms.

That, notes McCloughlin, "is far more liberal than Al Gore."

The Democrat's 11th Commandment

Barring a huge blunder, Bradley will likely stay in the race through the end of the primaries. And many Democrats are worried for their party.

If Bradley beats Gore in New Hampshire, the superdelegates, who comprise 19 percent of those who will choose the nominee, might become nervous, Gergen says. They may even withhold their support for the incumbent vice president. A party divided until the convention will likely face a tougher challenge from a strong Republican candidate.

Still, young progressives like McLoughlin say they're impressed by Bradley's quiet passion.

"To be honest, I was happy with a lot of what Clinton did until I started learning more about Bradley and became more attuned to the flaws of the Clinton-Gore philosophy," he says.

So for some Democratic faithful looking for a candidate who speaks to them, Bradley presents an alluring alternative.