Study: College Rankings Do Matter

While administrators at several schools have recently tried to downplay the impact of the U.S. News & World Report's annual college rankings, the numbers tell a different story.

Changes in a school's U.S. News & World Report ranking can affect that school's admission statistics, according to a recent study by Cornell Professor of Industrial and Labor Relations Ronald G. Ehrenberg and James Monks of the Consortium on Financing Higher Education.

The study, which will be published in the November/December issue of Change magazine, examines statistical trends at 30 colleges and universities over the past 11 years.

"We found that if you improve in the rankings by one position, you will see more students apply, a smaller fraction admitted and a higher yield from the students accepted," Ehrenberg said. "You also have higher average SAT scores and can get away with giving less financial aid."

For example, an increase in the rankings by one place can causes a school's admit rate to decrease by 0.399 percent, its yield to increase by 0.171 percent, and its average SAT score to increase by 2.777 points. Schools that rise in the rankings also offer slightly less generous financial aid packages.

Ehrenberg noted, however, that fluctuations in the U.S.News rankings are mainly the result of changes in the formula the magazine uses to calculate rank from year to year.

This year, for example, the California Institute of Technology rose from fourth to first in the rankings--a jump that is largely due to a change in the way U.S. News & World Report evaluated school spending per student.

"The major reaction we've gotten from administrators is that they just shake their heads," Ehrenberg said. "They're afraid we're right, that changes in the U.S. News formula will actually change institutions."

While Harvard was included in the report, Ehrenberg said that Harvard would likely be an exception to his study's rules.

"If you only change from three to one or two to three, you won't see much of a statistical effect," Ehrenberg said.

Indeed, Harvard has seen a steady decline in its admit rate over the past several years despite minor fluctuations in rank. The College also introduced major increases in financial aid last year, despite being ranked first by U.S. News.

The report explicitly notes the case of Cornell, which rose from number 14 in 1997 to number six in 1998. Ehrenberg says that, based on this jump, his study accurately predicted Cornell's admissions statistics for 1999.

Thus far, Cornell has not responded to the study or to the U.S. News & World Report rankings.

"I don't know what we can do," said Cornell Provost Don M. Randel. "We've been pretty steady in academic quality and things that matter, and we'll continue to do that."

"We haven't engaged in the organized opposition to the rankings," Randel added.

Ehrenberg, whose book Adam Smith Goes to College...and learns why they can't keep down their costs will be published by the Harvard University Press this summer, echoes the sentiments of many administrators when he urges students to take the rankings with a grain of salt.

"Institutions don't change in quality from year to year--that's just U.S. News changing its formula," he said. "True quality means a lot of things to a lot of people, and U.S. News doesn't take that into account."