Experts Discuss Caspian Sea Oil Reserves

The Middle East is not the only region ripe with political conflict whose future depends on oil, said participants in last night's panel discussion on "US and the Caspian: Crossroads or Barricade?"

The discussion, held at the Kennedy School of Government's ARCO Forum, emphasized the potential benefits of untapped oil reserves in the Caspian Sea while downplaying the ethnic strife in the region.

"Oil and natural gas are vital for the security and economies of the region," said John Deutch, Institute Professor at MIT and former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Other panelists included Araz Azimov, a foreign affairs official from Azerbaijan; Ashton Carter, Ford Foundation professor of science and international affairs at the Kennedy School; and Tim Cejka, vice president of Exploration for Exxon Venture, which explores opportunities for exploiting new oil resources in the former Soviet Union.

Each speaker said international cooperation in exploiting the new oil reserves is key to the future security and prosperity of the oil-rich but politically tense Caspian Sea region.

The area, which includes the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, has a history of ethnic conflict.

Carter stressed the Caspian's impact on U.S. security, before adding that all countries in the area must gain from the exploitation of the region's oil in order to prevent instability.

"It's crucial that no one be left out," Carter said. "It has to be a partial win for everyone, or it will be [a loss] for everyone."

Oil industry representative Cejka supported this notion of multinational involvement but warned that not all countries would benefit equally.

"Some will be bigger winners than others," Cejka said, explaining that Azerbaijan stands to benefit more than the other nations in the Caspian region.

Carter and Deutch agreed that the biggest impediment to successful use of Caspian oil would be Iran, which borders the region. Oil would most likely have to be pipelined through Iran in order to reach the world market.

"At some point this has to include Iran as well," Carter said. "They have to be part of the solution also."

But the scope of the discussion shifted during the question-and-answer session as panelists were forced to address thornier issues involving the region.

Several audience members stressed the depth of the ethnic strife between Azerbaijan and Armenia, particularly over Nagorno-Karabagh, an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan.

Joseph Dagdigian, chair of the Armenian National Committee of Merrimack Valley (N.H.), criticized the Azerbaijani government in his question, saying that the nation had committed genocide against Armenians in the country and in Nagorno-Karabagh.

Azerbaijani representative Azimov denied the accusations.

"What you might call genocide, others might not recognize as genocide," he said.

But after the discussion had ended, Dagdigian said he was not satisfied with Azimov's response.

"[The genocide] was identical to what happened in Kosovo," Dagdigian said. "The response of Mr. Azimov was completely erroneous."

Panel moderator Graham T. Allison, director of the Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said the ethnic issue was worthy of a future discussion, but asked that the topic be addressed at another time.

"I think that, given the time, we don't continue that debate," Allison said.

Despite this warning, another member of the audience unsuccessfully tried to readdress the ethnic issue, literally shouting over Allison as he formally ended the panel discussion.

Last night's forum, Allison said, marked the beginning of the Caspian Studies Program, a three-year effort to educate Kennedy School students and national politicians about the region.