The Dark Days

The Golden Governors have hit the skids.

Just a few years ago, the triumvirate of Governors William F. Weld '66 of Massachusetts, Pete Wilson of California, and Christie Todd Whitman of New Jersey were hailed as the future saviors of the Republican Party. The "3 W's" of moderate Republicanism-fiscally conservative (tax and spending cuts) and socially liberal (pro-choice, pro-gay rights)-seemed to offer the perfect combination to lure the Republican Party back to the center from its Buchananite extremes. With their message of keeping the government out of the pocketbook and the bedroom, they could sell the all-important swing voters of the '90s-white middle- and upper-middle class suburbanites-the original of the Republican-Lite itch that Bill Clinton has used so effectively to twice beat the Republicans at their own game.

Surprisingly though, all three now find themselves teetering on the brink of political demise with presidential futures a distant fancy.

Governor Wilson-a two-time winner of both Senate and gubernatorial contests in the nation's most populous state-can't seem to be able to buy a friend in California these days. Minority groups and liberals loathe him for his vocal stances against illegal immigrants and affirmative action, a vociferousness that is equaled by the right wing of his own party for his socially liberal positions. His dire political straits were further emphasized by his negligible '96 presidential run that seemed to end before it began and by his failure to successfully lead a fight to change the G.O.P. platform's stance on abortion at the Republican Convention in his hometown of San Diego.

Governor Weld is now Citizen Weld after resigning his post to (unsuccessfully) face-off with Senator Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) over his nomination by President Clinton to the Ambassadorship to Mexico. The charming, intelligent and popular New Englander was quickly shown the door by the poster-boy for the conservative agenda. Remarkably, the steamrollering of this one-time G.O.P. rising star by Helms generated only an outcry of deafening silence from his fellow Republicans in control of the Senate. This Capitol Hill embarrassment comes within a year of his failed attempt to unseat incumbent Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) last November.

As for Governor Whitman, she now finds herself in a surprisingly tight re-election fight against a little-known Democratic challenger. This despite three strong points in her favor: her national popularity after aggressive tax-cutting early in her term, a well-received response to President Clinton's State of the Union address, and her status as one of the biggest draws on the Republican speakers' circuit. Although she'll probably win, Whitman will have to earn her victory the old-fashioned way: by first overcoming voter anger directed at her for rising property taxes and the highest automobile insurance rates in the nation.

What happened here? Do the travails of these three indicate the demise of moderate Republicanism?

Well, yes and no. The trio's troubles stem more from their poor political judgment than from their centrist politics.

Wilson chose political expediency in his bid for re-election in 1994 and, in so doing, alienated so many disparate groups that he lacks any solid base from which to launch a national campaign.

Weld, in his desire for a change of scenery from Beacon Hill, chose his battles foolishly. In the race with Kerry, he was never able to persuade predominantly-Democratic Massachusetts voters to remove a popular Governor from office to replace a relatively popular Senator (and help pad the Republican congressional majority in the process). As for his nomination fight, he learned that the U.S. Senate-with its powerful privileges for committee chairpeople-is a poor battleground to fight for the soul of the G.O.P., especially considering that Helms and his followers had no incentive to help what they view as a Democrat-in-Republican's clothing.

In New Jersey, Whitman is simply paying the piper for her own sales pitch of four years ago. She won her first campaign for Governor by bashing incumbent Jim Florio for his tax hikes and pledging that she would reverse the trend. While income taxes were cut, her failure to control property taxes and auto insurance rates undercut her credibility. As any consumer knows, cheaper peanut butter is no bargain if jelly and bread still cost a fortune.

The real question, though, remains: What are the consequences of the poor judgment of Wilson, Weld and Whitman for the "silent majority" of moderate Republicanism?

If Whitman loses and Weld and Wilson no longer take active roles in national politics, the damage will manifest itself in two areas. Their absence from the national scene will deny moderate Republicans the proof they need to believe that their brand of candidate can win and govern effectively. And the fate of the 2000 nomination will remain even more firmly in the hands of the conservative Religious Right.

However, if these three actively work to spread their message and actually get their supporters into the Big Tent of the GOP (rather than just talking about it), they may actually have a hope of countering the influential-beyond-their-numbers Christian Coalition bunch.

But, if the 3 W's really want to convert their party, they need to remember the Clinton Rule: nothing convinces like success. Bill Clinton was able to get a predominantly-liberal Democratic Party behind him despite their distaste for many of his stances (welfare reform, NAFTA, the death penalty) by finally gaining his party entry to the White House after years of electoral embarrassments.

If the Democrats win again in 2000 against a socially conservative Republican, the GOP, like the Democratic Party with Clinton, might become fedup with losing and finally be ready to try something new.

The one-time Golden Governors must only hope that they can recover from their current troubles in time to grab hold of the reins if and when that day ever comes.