Forbes' Win Broadens GOP Race

Seemingly forgotten after a dismal showing in the New Hampshire primary, magazine publisher Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes Jr. won a stunning upset in the winner-take-all Arizona primary Tuesday, further complicating an already muddled race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Following last Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, the GOP race appeared to be a three-way dog-fight among U.S. Sen. Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.), political commentator Patrick S. Buchanan and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander.

Buchanan, who claimed a narrow victory in New Hampshire, was looking this week to take advantage of the split in the more moderate conservative vote between Dole and Alexander to push his more radical, isolationist agenda.

And according to analysts, Forbes' win in Arizona may be a sign that the moderate vote is split even further than GOP leaders first thought.

"Clearly, somebody has to get out of this race," said former U.S. Rep. Mickey Edwards (R-Okla.), a lecturer at the Kennedy School of Government.

Edwards said if multiple candidates continue to split the mainstream vote, Buchanan can remain a viable candidate, even though his vote tallies in states hover around 25 to 30 percent.

"Any one of these people can beat Buchanan one-on-one," Edwards said.

But Forbes is labeling his recent success more than simply a boost for Buchanan.

After finishing a distant fourth in the Granite State, Forbes took Delaware's primary Saturday, then poured millions of dollars into television and radio ads to win Arizona, which was expected to be the battleground of a one-on-one confrontation between Dole and Buchanan.

The leading proponent of the flat tax, Forbes now leads in the delegate count with 60. Buchanan has 37, followed by Dole's 35 and Alexander's 10.

"Forbes is a viable candidate because of the non-viability of the others," Edwards said. "Alexander has not caught on anywhere and Dole is quite obviously not exciting people."

With 996 delegates necessary to claim the nomination at the party's San Diego convention in August, analysts said it is becoming noticeably late in the race for delegates to be distributed so evenly.

Edwards said if no candidate emerges as the party's clear choice soon, the possibility exists for a brokered convention, a phenomenon absent from American politics for almost 30 years.

In such a case, explained Edwards, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and several powerful GOP governors would begin working out deals to choose a candidate who could beat President Clinton in November.

In the event of a brokered convention, either Dole would be chosen as the GOP candidate or the GOP would turn to a candidate not in the original race, Edwards said.

If Dole were not chosen, Gen. Colin L. Powell, the former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Jack Kemp, former U.S. Rep. and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, would be the leading candidates for the nomination in a brokered convention, Edwards said.

"Clinton doesn't look too good against either of them," Edwards said.

Visiting Professor of Government James W. Ceaser agreed that the disharmony within the GOP means a brokered convention is not out of the question.

"There are more demonstrations of weakness in the coalition," said Ceaser, who is a tenured professor at the University of Virginia. "The boldness of the Contract with America has been forgotten for the moment."

While Ceaser called the possibility of nominating a fresh candidate like Kemp or Powell a "longshot," he added that negotiations between state party leaders in preparation for a brokered convention could begin as early as April, well before the convention.

However, Harvard Republican Club President Jay M. Dickerson '98 said he believes the party will choose a candidate in time for the convention this summer.

"Dole is going to emerge," he said.

The Senate Majority Leader--still considered the front-runner by most analysts--won consolation victories Tuesday in less significant primaries in North and South Dakota.

"The Dakotas were pretty good for him," Dickerson said. "He just needs to get a big state under his belt."

Edwards said he does not read a lot into Dole's losing Arizona, a state in which the senator did little campaigning and snubbed angry voters by missing a debate there last week.

Dole, who Caesar called "a weak front-runner," has already guaranteed victory in South Carolina's crucial primary Saturday.

"By default, you keep coming back to Dole," said Ceaser, who said Dole is considered by many voters as the most "plausible" candidate for the presidency, although he is certainly not in the shape he wanted to be in.

However, the South may be even more crucial for Alexander, who did not campaign in Arizona and the Dakotas because he wanted to focus on the South and the New England states, where primaries will be held next Tuesday.

"[Alexander] kind of got a bye Tuesday," said Ceaser, who added that it is "make-or-break time" for the moderate candidate in the upcoming week.

Others are already writing off the former governor, who finished fourth in South Dakota and Arizona, and fifth in North Dakota.

"Alexander is an empty plaid shirt," Edwards said.

Dickerson said Alexander "is finished." He added that, while the former governor expects success in the South, he is running fourth in many preliminary polls in the region.

On the other hand, there is still plenty of momentum for Buchanan, whose active faction of supporters have donated large sums of campaign funding and plan to keep him in the race for the long haul.

The commentator's populist, antitrade campaign helped him finish third in Arizona and North Dakota, and second in South Dakota.

"Buchanan has no chance whatsoever of being nominated," said Edwards, despite the candidate's recent success and his upset win in New Hampshire.

While the Republicans squabble, Clinton--running unopposed for the Democratic nomination--is saving his energy for after the summer conventions, analysts said.

However, many recall the disunity among the Democrats during the 1992 primary season, after which Clinton was able to defeat incumbent President George Bush.

"[Clinton] can have an extra Coke, but shouldn't be breaking out the champagne," said Ceaser. "When everyone is attacking each other, the opposition always looks worse.

With 996 delegates necessary to claim the nomination at the party's San Diego convention in August, analysts said it is becoming noticeably late in the race for delegates to be distributed so evenly.

Edwards said if no candidate emerges as the party's clear choice soon, the possibility exists for a brokered convention, a phenomenon absent from American politics for almost 30 years.

In such a case, explained Edwards, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and several powerful GOP governors would begin working out deals to choose a candidate who could beat President Clinton in November.

In the event of a brokered convention, either Dole would be chosen as the GOP candidate or the GOP would turn to a candidate not in the original race, Edwards said.

If Dole were not chosen, Gen. Colin L. Powell, the former Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Jack Kemp, former U.S. Rep. and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, would be the leading candidates for the nomination in a brokered convention, Edwards said.

"Clinton doesn't look too good against either of them," Edwards said.

Visiting Professor of Government James W. Ceaser agreed that the disharmony within the GOP means a brokered convention is not out of the question.

"There are more demonstrations of weakness in the coalition," said Ceaser, who is a tenured professor at the University of Virginia. "The boldness of the Contract with America has been forgotten for the moment."

While Ceaser called the possibility of nominating a fresh candidate like Kemp or Powell a "longshot," he added that negotiations between state party leaders in preparation for a brokered convention could begin as early as April, well before the convention.

However, Harvard Republican Club President Jay M. Dickerson '98 said he believes the party will choose a candidate in time for the convention this summer.

"Dole is going to emerge," he said.

The Senate Majority Leader--still considered the front-runner by most analysts--won consolation victories Tuesday in less significant primaries in North and South Dakota.

"The Dakotas were pretty good for him," Dickerson said. "He just needs to get a big state under his belt."

Edwards said he does not read a lot into Dole's losing Arizona, a state in which the senator did little campaigning and snubbed angry voters by missing a debate there last week.

Dole, who Caesar called "a weak front-runner," has already guaranteed victory in South Carolina's crucial primary Saturday.

"By default, you keep coming back to Dole," said Ceaser, who said Dole is considered by many voters as the most "plausible" candidate for the presidency, although he is certainly not in the shape he wanted to be in.

However, the South may be even more crucial for Alexander, who did not campaign in Arizona and the Dakotas because he wanted to focus on the South and the New England states, where primaries will be held next Tuesday.

"[Alexander] kind of got a bye Tuesday," said Ceaser, who added that it is "make-or-break time" for the moderate candidate in the upcoming week.

Others are already writing off the former governor, who finished fourth in South Dakota and Arizona, and fifth in North Dakota.

"Alexander is an empty plaid shirt," Edwards said.

Dickerson said Alexander "is finished." He added that, while the former governor expects success in the South, he is running fourth in many preliminary polls in the region.

On the other hand, there is still plenty of momentum for Buchanan, whose active faction of supporters have donated large sums of campaign funding and plan to keep him in the race for the long haul.

The commentator's populist, antitrade campaign helped him finish third in Arizona and North Dakota, and second in South Dakota.

"Buchanan has no chance whatsoever of being nominated," said Edwards, despite the candidate's recent success and his upset win in New Hampshire.

While the Republicans squabble, Clinton--running unopposed for the Democratic nomination--is saving his energy for after the summer conventions, analysts said.

However, many recall the disunity among the Democrats during the 1992 primary season, after which Clinton was able to defeat incumbent President George Bush.

"[Clinton] can have an extra Coke, but shouldn't be breaking out the champagne," said Ceaser. "When everyone is attacking each other, the opposition always looks worse.