Clinton's Fatal Balkan Trap

1964: Against its will, America is falling into war. The goals of the war are undefined. There is no end in sight. And the potential for escalation is unlimited.

1993: (see 1964)

America is going to war in the Balkans. Maybe not this month, maybe not this year, but soon enough we will be fighting there. Like the Vietnam conflict it so closely resembles, this war will sap our nation's energy and divert our attention from our domestic problems. It may rip us in two.

Things weren't supposed to come to this. For two years a "resurgent" Europe made the Balkans a test case-- and, ultimately, a mockery--of its self-proclaimed unity and power.

But European leaders eventually realized that the problem was bigger than they were. And so they lined up in a long train, hats in hand, to make their case to America.

Then-president George Bush more or less brushed them off. He knew Bosnia failed the Colin Powell Test; it resembled Vietnam more than Kuwait. But candidate Bill Clinton needed-to differentiate himself from Bush on foreign policy. During the campaign, in a major address, Clinton called for an activist policy of U.S. military involvement in the Balkans.

Once he became President, Clinton wished to push the Balkans into the background. He knew his administration would stand or fall on its domestic achievements. But the Bosnia issue kept nipping at him. The Europeans and American media kept up the pressure, using his campaign pledge as ammunition.

Clinton had big doubts, but he let others lead him. Bowing to the pressure, he finally ordered the air drops.

The air drops were a super-expensive public relations effort. Clinton intended to seem active without truly getting involved. While the optimum altitude for the aircraft would have been 400 feet, Clinton ordered the planes to fly at 10,000 feet.

At that altitude, U.S. pilots faced no danger. Of course, there was no danger that the mission might actually succeed either, but that didn't matter in the administration's political calculations. The air drops served one and only purpose: to get Bosnia off Bill's back.

The administration's ruse backfired. The air drops simultaneously highlighted the "need for action" in the Balkans and the foreign fumblings of our novice Commander in Chief. The result was a new round of calls for more, more, more. Hoping to placate the hawks, Clinton has only strengthened them.

The next big Clinton initiative was to lift the arms embargo against the Bosnian Muslims. The administration's stated hope was that arms for Bosnians would create a balance of power in the region, and lead to a peaceful settlement.

Of course, the administration was hoping against hope. The more likely result of the embargo's end would be the creation of (in the words of Douglas Hurd) a "level killing field" instead of an uneven one.

However, the lifting of the embargo appears to have been superseded by a new initiative: the "serious consideration" Clinton has said he is giving to U.S. and allied air strikes against Serbian positions in Bosnia. It appears that the U.S. will be at war in Europe for the first time in nearly a half century.

Clinton is not stupid. He knows the dangers of the course he has taken. Why is he tempting fate?

The problem is that Clinton, like Lyndon Johnson before him, is trapped in a logic of incessant escalation. Everything he does makes the situation worse; the worse the situation gets, the more insistent become the calls to "do something." Now that Clinton's prestige--and that of his country--are engaged in the conflict, he finds it terribly difficult to back out.

Like a person on a bicycle, Clinton must pedal forward in order to stay upright. And yet the terrain he is pedaling toward is full of pock marks, fox holes and blood.

It is ironic that the first President of the Vietnam generation--a man who himself opposed that war--would end up in a quagmire even more dangerous and fruitless than Vietnam. For one thing, today's weapons are far more destructive than those of the 1960s. Secondly, there is danger that a Balkan War would spill over out of the region--even into Russia.

Is there any way out? Yes. Bill Clinton can stop following and start leading. He can stop looking for short term political relief and start looking out for the long term interests of this country. He can put his foot down, do the right thing, and accept the major political beating that is sure to follow.

Oh well. So much for ways out.

Of course the situation in Bosnia is terrible. Of course it is proper that the U.S. try to aid people in need. But when Balkan hatreds and American firepower combine, the situation will only become much, much worse.

And when you are sitting in a foxhole outside Srebrenica, will you still believe in a place called Hope?

Jacques E. C. Hymans, an editor of The Crimson, openly admits that he is a cynic.

He approved the initial airdrops for one purpose: to get Bosnia off of his back

But everything the President does to placate the hawks only strengthens them