CAMBRIDGE AND THE CAMPAIGN

As the Republicans prepare for a week-long fiesta in Houston, pundits across the nation are pondering the future for the incumbent ticket, which currently lags in the polls.

Two Harvard government professors yesterday said that in this atypical election year, Republicans may have a difficult task ahead of them.

President George Bush "has got problems across the board," said Assistant Professor of Government Michael G. Hagen.

And Associate Professor of Government Mark A. Peterson said that as the Republicans "continue to trip over themselves...the Presidential message has been getting lost."

Yesterday's announcement that Secretary of State James A. Baker III will leave his post to assume broad duties as White House Chief of Staff may not help the Bush campaign's floundering image, Peterson said.

It may "look very patently political," he said.

As Baker works to organize a scateredoperation, the Republicans still need to clearlydefine their message, Hagen said. The GOP'schallenge next week, he said, boils down to"giving us a reason to vote for Bush and Quayle."

Beyond providing reasons to reject nominee BillClinton and vice-presidential nominee Albert A.Gore Jr. '69, the Republican ticket must define anappealing position.

"It's going to be interesting to see what theRepublicans are going to come up with," Hagensaid.

Peterson noted that in coming up with aplatform, Republicans have let the right lead theway towards strident conservative stands onabortion, social issues and taxation.

"They've driven themselves into a particularposition," Peterson said," at a time in which thePresident is quite unpopular to begin with."

Bush's popularity will probably improve asconvention hoopla begins to net good press for hisparty, Hagen said.

While they no longer help to determine aparty's nominee, Hagen said, conventions stillplay important roles as "pep rallies for thetroops."

Both scholars agreed that even thought Bushcontinues to slide in the polls, he still has thebetter shot at a November victory.

"The probability still is better than .5 thatthe President will be re-elected," Hagen said.

But the economy is an important variable,Peterson said, and poor financial records havehistorically put incumbents at risk.

Hagen said that in this case, perception mayprove more meaningful than reality. "The Americanpeople think that the economy is doing even worsethan it's doing at the moment," Hagen said.

A severe sense of economic malaise, Petersonsuggested, could prompt enough unrest--and enoughsupport for Clinton's "change" ticket--to tip theNovember balance in Democrats' favor

As Baker works to organize a scateredoperation, the Republicans still need to clearlydefine their message, Hagen said. The GOP'schallenge next week, he said, boils down to"giving us a reason to vote for Bush and Quayle."

Beyond providing reasons to reject nominee BillClinton and vice-presidential nominee Albert A.Gore Jr. '69, the Republican ticket must define anappealing position.

"It's going to be interesting to see what theRepublicans are going to come up with," Hagensaid.

Peterson noted that in coming up with aplatform, Republicans have let the right lead theway towards strident conservative stands onabortion, social issues and taxation.

"They've driven themselves into a particularposition," Peterson said," at a time in which thePresident is quite unpopular to begin with."

Bush's popularity will probably improve asconvention hoopla begins to net good press for hisparty, Hagen said.

While they no longer help to determine aparty's nominee, Hagen said, conventions stillplay important roles as "pep rallies for thetroops."

Both scholars agreed that even thought Bushcontinues to slide in the polls, he still has thebetter shot at a November victory.

"The probability still is better than .5 thatthe President will be re-elected," Hagen said.

But the economy is an important variable,Peterson said, and poor financial records havehistorically put incumbents at risk.

Hagen said that in this case, perception mayprove more meaningful than reality. "The Americanpeople think that the economy is doing even worsethan it's doing at the moment," Hagen said.

A severe sense of economic malaise, Petersonsuggested, could prompt enough unrest--and enoughsupport for Clinton's "change" ticket--to tip theNovember balance in Democrats' favor