Race Altered By Perot's Exit

NEW YORK--While pundits have been calling Bill Clinton's triumphant acceptance speech last night a pinnacle of his political career, events beyond his control may be the real determinents of Clinton's future.

Nothing illustrated this more than billionaire Ross Perot's surprise departurefrom the race yesterday, which turned theunconventional three-man race into a traditionalhead-to-head battle.

Some say the exit of Perot, who has fought avicious battle of words with the Bush campaign inrecent weeks, can only help the incumbent.

Harvard Professor of Government Morris P.Fiorina said the Clinton campaign strategy was agamble based on a strong Perot showing.

"The great bulk of the academic analysts wouldsay that in a two-person race, Bush is a heavyfavorite," Fiorina said.

But others, including Democratic Party ChairRonald H. Brown, say that the people who supportPerot are not the type to go back to Bush, andthat Clinton will benefit.

"The American people want change," Brown saidyesterday. "They want change desperately. There isonly one candidate for change in this field. BillClinton is the epitome of change."

Party Not Unprepared

Brown said that while the switch to atwo-person race certainly "changes the dynamic" ofthe campaign, it does not leave the partycompletely unprepared.

"We prepared for three-and-a-half years for atwo-person race, and that's what we're back to,"he said.

And while Perot's announcement may have stolensome of the Democrats' thunder, last night'sacceptance speech gave Clinton a uniqueopportunity to pull Perot supporters into theDemocratic camp, according to Associate Professorof Government Mark A. Peterson.

"In fact, this may be the most important momenthe will have in the campaign," Peterson said.

Clinton, in fact, made a last-minute change tohis speech, seizing on Perot's description of a"revitalized" Democratic party which allowed theTexan to leave the race in good conscience.

"We are, as Democrats, in the words that RossPerot himself spoke today, a revitalizedDemocratic party," Clinton said. "I am well awarethat all those people who rallied to his causewanted to be in an army of patriots for change.

"I say to them tonight, 'Join us and togetherwe will revitalize America."

Both parties scrambled to pick up Perot'ssupporters yesterday, saying good things about theman they had assailed only days before. Both Bushand Clinton said they had learned an importantmessage from the groundswell of support for Perot.

Immediate courtship of Perot loyalists maywork, Peterson said. But he suggested that, facedwith the initial disappointment with theircandidate's unexpected exit, his supporters mightnot yet be ready to listen--even to thenow-familiar mantra of change.

As important as the uncertain future of Perotsupporters is the American economy, a factorequally out of Clinton's control. Bush'spopularity is inextricably tied to the financialsituation of the average family.

Incumbent presidents almost always win,Peterson noted. When they haven't won in the past,he said, "the economy has been in very badshape...and heading in the wrong direction."

Future Uncertain

Democrats cannot control the future any morethan they can predict the state of the economythis fall. But they can run on Bush's record.

"Talking about change is one thing," Brownsaid. "Implementing change is something else, andwe know George Bush has no ability to implementthe change we need in America."

Democrats now are riding high in the wake ofpost-convention euphoria. But the comingmonths--and the full-force launch of the Bushcampaign--will provide a test for thenewly-annointed nominee.

Peterson says Clinton is cursed with "very highnegatives," including suspicions about hischaracter and his political ambitions, that mayput him at a disadvantage.

Another Clinton disadvantage, Fiorina says, ishistory. "When people look at Clinton, they justdon't see Clinton. They see the Democratic partyof the last 20 years," he said.

Speculation in New York yesterday was thatRepublicans would begin a negative campaignagainst Clinton in earnest sooner because ofPerot's departure, and Republican Chair Rich Bondindicated yesterday that the Democrats' bitingconvention rhetoric opened the floodgates.

But Brown claimed Bush could prevent vitriolicspots--if he did more than just make statements todistance himself from producers like Floyd Brown,who developed the Willie Horton ads.

"George Bush could stop this nonsense right nowif he was the kind of leader we need in the UnitedStates," Brown said.

The advertising issue is less important thisgo-around, Peterson said, because a barrage ofnegative ads this year would not have the samedevastating effect it had in 1988.

"Michael Dukakis was, I think, really takenaback by the Willie Horton experience, and didn'tknow how to respond," he said. "Bill Clinton isnot going to take a Willie Horton and notrespond."

Most Democrats agree with Charles Morris, aClinton delegate from Selbaville, Dela., who saidClinton must "just keep telling [Americans] hismessage." And just as important, Morris said,Democrats must stand with their nominee.

"We have to believe in him and have faith inhim and then work for him," Morris said, "and Ithink everything else will fall in place."

Joanna M. Weiss contributed to the reportingof this article.

Some say the exit of Perot, who has fought avicious battle of words with the Bush campaign inrecent weeks, can only help the incumbent.

Harvard Professor of Government Morris P.Fiorina said the Clinton campaign strategy was agamble based on a strong Perot showing.

"The great bulk of the academic analysts wouldsay that in a two-person race, Bush is a heavyfavorite," Fiorina said.

But others, including Democratic Party ChairRonald H. Brown, say that the people who supportPerot are not the type to go back to Bush, andthat Clinton will benefit.

"The American people want change," Brown saidyesterday. "They want change desperately. There isonly one candidate for change in this field. BillClinton is the epitome of change."

Party Not Unprepared

Brown said that while the switch to atwo-person race certainly "changes the dynamic" ofthe campaign, it does not leave the partycompletely unprepared.

"We prepared for three-and-a-half years for atwo-person race, and that's what we're back to,"he said.

And while Perot's announcement may have stolensome of the Democrats' thunder, last night'sacceptance speech gave Clinton a uniqueopportunity to pull Perot supporters into theDemocratic camp, according to Associate Professorof Government Mark A. Peterson.

"In fact, this may be the most important momenthe will have in the campaign," Peterson said.

Clinton, in fact, made a last-minute change tohis speech, seizing on Perot's description of a"revitalized" Democratic party which allowed theTexan to leave the race in good conscience.

"We are, as Democrats, in the words that RossPerot himself spoke today, a revitalizedDemocratic party," Clinton said. "I am well awarethat all those people who rallied to his causewanted to be in an army of patriots for change.

"I say to them tonight, 'Join us and togetherwe will revitalize America."

Both parties scrambled to pick up Perot'ssupporters yesterday, saying good things about theman they had assailed only days before. Both Bushand Clinton said they had learned an importantmessage from the groundswell of support for Perot.

Immediate courtship of Perot loyalists maywork, Peterson said. But he suggested that, facedwith the initial disappointment with theircandidate's unexpected exit, his supporters mightnot yet be ready to listen--even to thenow-familiar mantra of change.

As important as the uncertain future of Perotsupporters is the American economy, a factorequally out of Clinton's control. Bush'spopularity is inextricably tied to the financialsituation of the average family.

Incumbent presidents almost always win,Peterson noted. When they haven't won in the past,he said, "the economy has been in very badshape...and heading in the wrong direction."

Future Uncertain

Democrats cannot control the future any morethan they can predict the state of the economythis fall. But they can run on Bush's record.

"Talking about change is one thing," Brownsaid. "Implementing change is something else, andwe know George Bush has no ability to implementthe change we need in America."

Democrats now are riding high in the wake ofpost-convention euphoria. But the comingmonths--and the full-force launch of the Bushcampaign--will provide a test for thenewly-annointed nominee.

Peterson says Clinton is cursed with "very highnegatives," including suspicions about hischaracter and his political ambitions, that mayput him at a disadvantage.

Another Clinton disadvantage, Fiorina says, ishistory. "When people look at Clinton, they justdon't see Clinton. They see the Democratic partyof the last 20 years," he said.

Speculation in New York yesterday was thatRepublicans would begin a negative campaignagainst Clinton in earnest sooner because ofPerot's departure, and Republican Chair Rich Bondindicated yesterday that the Democrats' bitingconvention rhetoric opened the floodgates.

But Brown claimed Bush could prevent vitriolicspots--if he did more than just make statements todistance himself from producers like Floyd Brown,who developed the Willie Horton ads.

"George Bush could stop this nonsense right nowif he was the kind of leader we need in the UnitedStates," Brown said.

The advertising issue is less important thisgo-around, Peterson said, because a barrage ofnegative ads this year would not have the samedevastating effect it had in 1988.

"Michael Dukakis was, I think, really takenaback by the Willie Horton experience, and didn'tknow how to respond," he said. "Bill Clinton isnot going to take a Willie Horton and notrespond."

Most Democrats agree with Charles Morris, aClinton delegate from Selbaville, Dela., who saidClinton must "just keep telling [Americans] hismessage." And just as important, Morris said,Democrats must stand with their nominee.

"We have to believe in him and have faith inhim and then work for him," Morris said, "and Ithink everything else will fall in place."

Joanna M. Weiss contributed to the reportingof this article.