Figuring It All Out

Ever try to figure out scenarios for athletics?

It ain't easy.

That's why coaches of teams in contention for championships say things like this:

"We have to take every minute [of every half] as it comes," Harvard Women's Basketball Coach Kathy Delaney Smith said.

Well, while the team is mired in the race for the Ivy crown, I figured I'd look a few minutes ahead.

On Tuesday night, I settled down at my desk with a pen, piece of paper and the remaining schedules for Harvard, Brown and Dartmouth.

"All right," I thought. "Let's see...Brown's in first place at 11-1, Harvard's in second at 9-2, Dartmouth's in third, 8-3."

I began to jot the information down.

"Okay, Brown will play Dartmouth on Friday," I silently mouthed. "And if they lose and Harvard wins then...No wait, that can't be right."

No sooner after I started was I hopelessly confused. The scenarios made no sense. I suck at math.

So I paid a visit to a bespectacled math concentrator who lives upstairs. He was playing chess with his computer, but was still happy to stop and help me.

He clicked open his Microsoft Excel and began punching in teams schedules and equations of possible scenarios.

"Now if E8 is greater than C8 and we sort data by 18 ascending...," he murmured to himself.

I just stood there with my mouth slack-jawed, watching in mute stupidity.

Finally, after much weeping and gnashing of teeth, he reported the findings of 32 possible outcomes. Here are the most salient:

In order for Harvard to win the Ivy League title outright, the Crimson must win all of its remaining games (Yale, Brown, Dartmouth)--and Dartmouth must defeat Brown on Friday night.

"If we consider the games as Bernoulli random trials, Harvard has a 6.25 percent chance of winning the championship outright," my math muse pointed out. Who's Bernoulli? It doesn't matter.

The Crimson hasn't placed much stock in numbers this season. The only factor that counts is determination.

"This team is fierce about its desire to win," Delaney Smith said. "They'll do whatever it takes and they won let anything interfere."

If Harvard wants at least a share of the Ancient Eight title, it must beat Brown Saturday night. A loss will seal Brown's championship.

One intriguing twist in the Ivy League does remain, however. The scenario goes like this:

Harvard and Dartmouth sweep their contests this weekend.

On Tuesday, they meet. If the Big Green defeats the Crimson, there will be a three-way tie among Harvard, Brown and Dartmouth for the championship. But if Dartmouth loses, the Big Green will own third place.

Confused?

Me too.