Experts Discuss Breakup Of USSR

Leading political experts discussed the fate of the former Soviet Union and its possible impact on the United States in a panel discussion at the Kennedy School of Government last night.

The hour-long forum, televised live on the Monitor Channel, was the second in a series of broadcasts called American Issues '92. The program, conceived in light of the upcoming presidential election, focuses on important issues that face the country, according to Charles T. Royer, director of the Institute of Politics.

Last night's panelists included Graham T. Allison '62, Dillon professor of government; Angela Stent, a Soviet specialist at Georgetown University; and Richard B. Wirthlin, president of the Wirthlin Group and a former pollster for President Reagan.

Royer, who moderated the discussion, initiated the forum by asking the panelists, "Can the former Soviet Union survive? How can we help?"

The experts responded by touching on a varietyof issues, framing them in terms of theirimplications for the United States. The panelistscommented on the Commonwealth's newly establishedmarket economy, nuclear capabilities andcohesiveness.

They indicated that the Commonwealth isrelatively unstable.

"It is a mistake to look at the Commonwealth asanything but a transitional entity," said Stent,noting that "the absence of a constitution andlegal system, and little agreement among therepublics."

The panelists alerted the audience of themagnified dangers which America faces as a resultof the Commonwealth's willingness to sell nucleararmaments to customers such as Saddam Hussein.

"The dangers of nuclear threat are now greaterthan they were before the vanishment of the SovietUnion," Allison said.

"We should not write off the possibility ofnuclear warfare simply because Communism is over,"Stent said.

According to Wirthlin, the bulk of the Americanpublic is not aware of the heightened danger.

He said the presidential candidates are alsonot giving this issue much attention.

Commenting on the economy, Allison said thelong-term results cannot be foreseen, but for thepresent, Stent said that "signs are encouraging,economic reform is proceeding and privatization isin effect."

The panelists concluded their discussion bycommenting on the U.S. role in the reform efforts.

Allison said that the U.S. should not providemerely financial support to the Commonwealth.

"The objectives of this strategy should includesupport for denuclearization, demilitarization,democratization and rapid transition to the marketeconomy," he suggested

The experts responded by touching on a varietyof issues, framing them in terms of theirimplications for the United States. The panelistscommented on the Commonwealth's newly establishedmarket economy, nuclear capabilities andcohesiveness.

They indicated that the Commonwealth isrelatively unstable.

"It is a mistake to look at the Commonwealth asanything but a transitional entity," said Stent,noting that "the absence of a constitution andlegal system, and little agreement among therepublics."

The panelists alerted the audience of themagnified dangers which America faces as a resultof the Commonwealth's willingness to sell nucleararmaments to customers such as Saddam Hussein.

"The dangers of nuclear threat are now greaterthan they were before the vanishment of the SovietUnion," Allison said.

"We should not write off the possibility ofnuclear warfare simply because Communism is over,"Stent said.

According to Wirthlin, the bulk of the Americanpublic is not aware of the heightened danger.

He said the presidential candidates are alsonot giving this issue much attention.

Commenting on the economy, Allison said thelong-term results cannot be foreseen, but for thepresent, Stent said that "signs are encouraging,economic reform is proceeding and privatization isin effect."

The panelists concluded their discussion bycommenting on the U.S. role in the reform efforts.

Allison said that the U.S. should not providemerely financial support to the Commonwealth.

"The objectives of this strategy should includesupport for denuclearization, demilitarization,democratization and rapid transition to the marketeconomy," he suggested