Scholars Downplay Offer's Importance

Harvard experts, contacted this morning, downplayed the Iraqi offer to withdraw from Kuwait, cautioning that the Gulf coalition would never accept the conditions placed on the announcement.

I wouldn't call it a first step, but it's something new," said Laurie A. Mylroie, a fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies. "He may just be overplaying his hand."

Mylroie said that Saddam Hussein may be overestimating his ability to negotiate at this stage in the war. Mylroie added that she believes that the conditions are such that the Bush Administration could never accept them. In particular, the Iraq expert said the conditions involving Israeli occupied territories and the rebuilding of Iraq would be problematic.

Other Harvard experts echoed Mylroie and said that it was doubtful that any offer linked to the ocupied territories could be acceptable.

From Washington

Contacted in Washington this morning, Mylroie said it appeared that Saddam Hussein was acknowledging the U.N. resolutions. "It is the first tieme that Iraq has talked about the U.N. resolution," said Mylroie.

Mylroie said that today's Iraqi announcement did not signify any change in the Iraqi power structure. Any power changes that occur will be to find someone to blame for the Iraqi state--not as a sign of a coup. Saddam is in control, he may shuffle to find scapegoates," Mylroie said.

Said Littauer Professor of Public Policy Albert Carnessale, "We have no idea if [the msessage] was official," adding that there was some question of the verb used in linking the conditions to the offer. He said he simply does not know if the conditions are a prerequisite for Iraqi withdraw.

Mylroie said the offer was a stage for negotiation with Iraq but added that Saddam may have over estimated the situation. "He needs something to show for this but he may be over playing his hand."

But Stanley H. Hoffmann, Dillon professor of the civilization of France, disagreed and said that the move was an intelligent one for Hussein.

"It seems to me to be a very clever move, offer and he has a chance of saying it is not I who am continuing the war," Hoffmann said.

"He has been trying every which way to break the coalition, including bombing Israel; nothing has worked," he said. "Diplomacy is a much more clever way. It is a very divisive manuever."

"I can't quite imagine Yitzhak Shamir considering the offer. If there is sufficient international pressure maybe," said Lawrence E. Stager, Dorot professor of the archeaology of Israel. But Stager added he did not foresee such pressure arising.

"I would be surprised if Washington is going to accept any of the conditions," Stager said. "I can't imagine anyone stopping them."

Said Professor of History Charles S. Maier, "If the conditions are Israeli withdrawal, it is not acceptable. It is not the linkage to make at this time."

Conditional?

But some professors expressed confusion over the news reports of the ocnditional surrender. They said that it is not clear whether the radio received official government approval. Scholars further said that the translation of the message was in doubt.

"[Washington] wants him out. They look at Kuwait as a hook to hang a number of problems," Hoffmann said. "The last thing they want is for him to withdraw with two-thirds of his army intact and him in power. Other members of the coalition want different goals.

This is a fundamental misunderstanding." Hoffmann said that while Washington wants to remove Hussein from power, many of its allies simply want to liberate Kuwait.