The Eye of History

The Reagan administration has hardly ended, but scholars are already assessing the long-term effects of the last five years of U.S.-Soviet relations.

Academic journals, not newspapers, will debate the roles of President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail S. Gorbachev in the softening of the superpowers. Architects who molded the course of events or symbols of an inevitable thaw? That is what the scholars must decide.

Specifically, academics must evaluate the effectiveness of Reagan's "peace through strength" philosophy--which led him to beef up defense and to arm "freedom fighters" around the world.

"My guess is that there will be a sizeable number of liberals who will feel that there is something to the [peace through strength] argument because historians, I think, tend to place a lot of emphasis--as do political scientists--on the outcomes," says Assistant Professor of Government Yuen Foong Khong.

Khong says Reagan deserves some credit since the thaw occurred during his tenure, but, "the question is degree then."

Marshall I. Goldman, associate director of Harvard's Russian Research Center, says he attributes some of the "glasnost" in relations to the nations' first ladies--Nancy Reagan and Raisa Gorbachev.

"I think that we're just lucky that both odd couples came along when they did and both odd couples had very odd coupled wives, who may not have gotten along, but who both had their eye on this ultimate accommodation," says Goldman.

The expert in Soviet economy says that Nancy realized her husband had fulfilled his domestic and military goals, "and now he couldn't go down in history as never having had a meeting with the Soviets." Raisa Gorbachev acted similarly, according to Goldman.

Although not entirely successful, the Reagan philosophy paid off in some areas, such as Afghanistan, where American arms supplied to rebels persuaded the Soviets to end an occupation of the war-torn nation, says Adam B. Ulam, Gurney professor of history and political science.

Mostly, however, Reagan benefitted from internal Soviet politics that paired him with a reforming leader. As Ulam puts it, "I think Mr. Reagan--to use such unscientific term--was terribly lucky."