The Case Against Reunification

THE more responsible people talk about the reunification of Germany, the more frightened I feel. As delirious Germans rejoice in the streets of Berlin. I can only pray that world leaders will strongly oppose a reunified Germany.

My reason? The possible formation of another intensely nationalistic Germany. Such a development would destabilize the international balance of power, disrupt the European economic community and undermine Germany's movement away from its tainted past.

As the Berlin Wall comes tumbling down and the two Germanies grow closer together, Germans will increasingly identify with one another and will grow resentful of years of forced separation. Surging German pride will slowly smooth over ideological divisions between East and West and increase pressure for reunification.

A unified Germany has been the single most destructive power in the world during the last century. The last time Germany unified, after the 1870 Franco-Prussian War, surging nationalism under Otto von Bismarck caused changes in the balance of power that eventually led to World War I. And we all know of the horrible forces German nationalism produced in the 1930's and 40's.

THE consequences of reunification today could be no less devastating. Most importantly, reunification would destabilize superpower relations and increase the likelihood of World War III.

If a reunified Germany aligned itself with NATO, the Soviet Union would fear an invasion from the West and would arm accordingly. Such fears would not be irrational. German armies have attacked the Soviet Union twice in the last 75 years by marching through Eastern Europe.

Soviet buildups would then cause pressure for American counter buildups, which would further destabilize the situation. At some point one side will decide that the best defensive strategy in Central Europe is offensive, and the fuse to World War III will have been lit.

The situation would be no better if a reunified Germany chose neutrality. Since Warsaw Pact conventional forces already far outnumber NATO's in Europe, NATO's loss of its West German ally would necessitate a NATO arms buildup. Such a buildup would have the same destabilizing effects of the Warsaw Pact build up in the previous scenario.

The superpowers aren't the only ones who would have to worry. Europe is no stranger to invading German armies. Just ask Poland or Czechoslovakia. Or France. Or Belgium. Even Great Britain can't afford to forget the shelling it suffered at German hands during World War II.

An independent Germany will rouse fears all over Europe. Reunification would create new problems for German integration into the European Community in 1992 and could easily flame suspicions and destabilize relations between currently friendly nations.

POSSIBLE German resentment toward the post-war settlement raises other troubling questions. Will East Germans once again look for scapegoats for the disastrous state of their economy? Will West Germany encourage their cousins' potential desires for revenge? More importantly, are Germans as committed to democratic principles as they seem, or are they merely using democratic rhetoric as an excuse to reunify and regain Germany's place in the sun?

Live ABC transmissions from the heart of Berlin that showed a new opening in the Berlin Wall probably seemed innocuous to most viewers. But those who looked over Peter Jenning's shoulder couldn't help but notice a large swastika spray-painted on the Wall. It's true that people spray paint swastikas on public walls in the United States. But American never unified behind a symbol which stands for world domination and the annihilation of entire races.

How can we know that the emotions and motivating forces behind the Third Reich are really dead?

Fifty-one years ago, a famous British Prime Minister bet his reputation that no such emotions would ever reign in Germany. After returning from the 1938 Munich Conference at which he agreed to let Hitler annex part of Czechoslovakia, Neville Chamberlain told his fellow citizens, "For the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time....Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."

One month ago, George Bush announced at a press conference that the American people have nothing to fear from German reunification. If he really believes this is so, we can only assume that Bush does not value history's lessons. Unless he changes his position, Bush could go down in history as Neville Chamberlain II.

Appeasing Germany was wrong in 1938. Let's not make that mistake again.