How Not to Attract Black Voters

SEVEN months after the lowa caucuses, one-and-a-half months after the Democratic Convention, Gov. Michael Dukakis does not know the difference between being on top of a ticket and leading a party.

The Dukakis of February (the Michael Dukakis of the "Seven Dwarfs" primary campaign) is the same as the Michael Dukakis of September. His themes are the same. He is still touting the Massachusetts Miracle. He is still praising competence as opposed to Ronald Reagan's cursed gift: charisma.

He is still offering nothing concrete. No plans. No dreams. Elect me and my competence, he says, and you won't be sorry.

All that has changed about Dukakis is his title. At the beginning of the campaign, he was Michael Dukakis, Democratic candidate. Now he is Michael Dukakis, Democratic nominee.

For a man intent on avoiding the tag "the next Jimmy Carter," Dukakis is acting a great deal like him.

In 1976, Carter ran in the primaries much as Dukakis did in 1988. Carter set out to avoid any specific plans, hoping that by displeasing no one, he would please everyone.

He had one theme, that of the "Washington outsider," a Christian peanut farmer capable of cleaning up the mess in Washington. He used this theme much as Dukakis is using the Massachusetts Miracle.

He was effective because Washington was a mess. It did need cleaning up. Watergate stunk like a New York subway.

In 1988, there is no great mess. Charisma does not stink. The odors left by Iran-Contra, Pentagon scandals and other Reagan-era problems are mild--sour milk, not rubbish.

Carter could afford to be vague. Dukakis cannot.

In the 1988 election, as in the 1976 election, what is most missing is enthusiasm. How excited can a person get about a debate over the "Pledge of Allegiance"?

Dukakis, by bantering with George Bush about this and other soporific issues, is putting his followers asleep. He is leaving them nothing to cheer about, no reason to say, "I am going to get up on election day and vote for Dukakis because of what he will do about this..."

ONE salient example of Dukakis' shortcomings is his dealings with Blacks. He seems to believe that Blacks will vote for him because he is not George Bush. But what makes him so sure that, given his silence on issues important to Blacks (civil rights, for instance), Blacks will vote at all?

Like Carter, Dukakis is trying not to offend. He does not want Jesse Jackson, the runner-up in the primary campaign and the nation's best-know Black politician, to alienate potential white voters and Reagan-Democrats, who might get uncomfortable if Jackson were to have too visible a presence in the Dukakis campaign.

So instead, Dukakis is telling Jackson to go his own way, namely to Black communities. Recently, the Dukakis campaign alloted Jackson and other Black Democratic leaders $5 million of the Dukakis campaign's $50 million budget for a get-out-the-Black-vote drive. Dukakis himself seems intent on remaining out of Black communites lest some white swing voters deem him sympathetic to Black causes.

Although a formidable campaigner, Jackson alone will not be enough to bring Black votes into the Dukakis column. Jackson, Blacks are accutely aware, is not the nominee. He will not be able to change their situations. He will not be able to push though civil rights legislation or new housing acts.

DUKAKIS needs to stop believing others will do for him what he needs to do. Dukakis needs to go to Black communities and tell Blacks what he will do to help them, the most obvious example of people who have not been reached by the Reagan revolution.

He showed he was a capable speaker at the Democratic Convention. He needs to bring his speaking skills to people most wanting to heed what he has to say.

If Dukakis maintains his vague approach and still wins--not inconceivable, considering Bush's propensity for shooting himself in the behind--he may well suffer from the same symptoms Carter faced as president.

NOT having stirred people as a campaigner, Carter never won their loyalty. When things did not go right for him as president, people did not back him up, did not say, "I will stand by Carter because of the risk he took in the campaign by saying what he would do for me."

Dukakis is hoping he can win because he is better than Bush: more competent and untainted by the last eight years. But Dukakis has to show what he will do, not what he is. He has to take a chance, bringing the party somewhere--to Black communities, for instance--not plopping it onto the middle of a fence and hoping people will come to it.