How Long Until Our Country Runs Out of Gas?

THIS month OPEC members met with non-OPEC oil producing nations for the first time, determined to curb global oil production and boost oil prices. The prospect of a resurrected cartel and another energy crunch has the Reagan administration worried. And that might not be so bad, after all.

Reagan thought OPEC was finished. The cartel began to self-destruct in the early 1980's when internecine squabbling and cheating on production quotas rendered it powerless to prop up oil prices. Combined with Carter-era conservation programs, excess production led to a world-wide glut. The price of a barrel of oil fell by one-third, ushering in the economic recovery of the Reagan era.

Reagan's economic progress is attributable, more than anything, to the decline of OPEC. The Republicans have a vested interest in maintaining wide-open oil production, because to the American voter, the drop in gasoline prices is probably the single most prominent economic improvement over the Carter administration. More importantly, if OPEC were to regain power and put a lid on oil production, prices could soar and pull America back into an inflationary spiral.

So President Reagan reacted swiftly to the meeting, vowing to do everything in his power to prevent OPEC from reasserting its control over oil production and prices.

BUT perhaps he shouldn't. During the late 1970's, at the peak of OPEC's power, the term "energy crisis" was on everyone's lips. The long lines and high prices at the gas station were painful, daily reminders that the world is running out of petroleum.

Congress rushed to fund research on synthetic fuels and fusion and raised the mandatory fuel efficiency standards for new cars. Advertisements urged us to add a layer of insulation to our attic, turn down our thermostats and avoid driving to conserve energy. The oil shortage created an intense awareness that we must conserve fuel and find new sources of energy to ensure that our supply of energy could fulfill future demands.

But now that cheap gasoline is available again, we have forgotten all about the energy crisis. Gas guzzling cars are popular again. The speed limit is 65 miles per hour. Research on synthetic fuels, fusion and other alternative energy sources has been pushed to the back burner. And no one speaks of conservation any more.

When we equated "the energy crisis" with "the high cost of gasoline," we erred seriously. Gas prices are lower now, but the real crisis--petroleum depletion--is still with us and is worse than ever.

Since the United States began drilling for petroleum, we have used 121 billion barrels. Today's technology can extract only about 27 billion more. If we develop more advanced extraction techniques, like recovering oil from shale, we can reach another 18-53 billion barrels.

But that's it. Despite intense exploration, there has been no major oil discovery in the U.S. since Prudhoe Bay in the early seventies.

THE current production glut and low fuel prices have allowed us to comfortably forget that we are running out of oil. Surely we don't want to suffer another OPEC-induced energy crunch, but we may well need one to remind us that a crisis still exists.

Carter's policy of promoting efficiency and conservation vastly reduced demand for oil. The improvement in passenger car fuel efficiency from 1973 levels saved more than twice as much oil in 1986 than was imported from the Persian Gulf. Between 1977 and 1985, while the number of registered automobiles increased by 20 percent, oil use declined by 15 percent. Carter's efforts saved the nation $150 billion every year in energy costs. Yet the Reagan administration lowered the required standards for automobile gasoline mileage.

Reagan's "what-me-worry?" energy policies are reminiscent of the Sesame Street episode in which Bert and Ernie find rain leaking through a hole in the roof. They can't patch the hole while it's raining, so they decide to wait until the rain stops. But when it does, they no longer see the need to fix the roof, because it's not leaking any more.

Now is the time to address the neglected problem of petroleum depletion, before another energy shortage strikes. We must subsidize research for new recovery techniques, synthetic fuel and alternative energy sources. More importantly, we must renew the campaign to reduce demand for energy through conservation.

We need something to make us realize that the energy crisis has not, and will not, just go away and that we must not relent in our efforts to plan for the future. Perhaps the fear of another OPEC oil squeeze will remind us, again.