Deep Doo Doo for Bush

READING the Boston Pheonix, I was surprised to learn that my home state of Oregon is leaning towards Presidential candidate Mike Dukakis. Oregon hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson beat Barry Goldwater in 1964.

It isn't that Oregon has been moved by that Dukakis charisma. Mike's moving oratory hasn't wow-ed the Oregonians. His allusions to ethnicity and the "Massachusetts Miracle" haven't electrified the folks at home. People are for Dukakis because they're sick and tired of George Bush.

Call him a fighter pilot, call him the President's right hand man--but to millions of Americans, George Herbert Walker Bush is still a wimp. The wimpfactor wasn't invented by the Democrats or by caustic cartoonists. As early as 1980, Manchester Union Leader Publisher William Loeb insisted that the Yale-bred Bush is "an incompetent wimp."

Trying to shed this wimp image, the Vice President has insulted women, shouted at journalists, and intimidated children. This is the man who got beat by Geraldine Ferraro in a 1984 debate--then bragged to his rich Republican buddies that he had "kicked a little ass."

This is the Vice President who ambushed a television anchorman live on the evening news, then bragged about it for weeks. That same month, Mr. Tough Guy struck again. Bush was speaking at an Iowa high school when he fielded a hostile question from a girl holding a "Jack Kemp for President" brochure. Bush seized the pamphlet and tore it to shreds.

The night he lost a straw poll in Ames County, Iowa, Bush insisted that a lot of his supporters had been busy attending social events and "debutante balls." After the debutantes had helped him win 19 percent of the turnout, Bush easily outpaced Al Haig, Pierre duPont, and Jack Kemp.

AFTER his Iowa showing, Bush called together some Republican media big-wigs to plot strategy. These media big boys determined that Dole had won Iowa because he had a good slogan. "Bob Dole--One of Us," it said. Knowing a good political slogan when he sees one, Bush snapped it up. All over New England "George Bush--One of Us" signs sprouted up. Bush won the New Hampshire primary, and coasted into Super Tuesday.

George Bush called on his opponents to abide by the GOP's eleventh commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican." When polls showed the VP behind Dole, however, he abandoned the commandment and came out swinging. Bob Dole was, George Bush insisted, a "sunshine patriot." Dole spent two years in a military hospital recuperating from wounds received in World War II.

George Bush has more home states than Steve's has ice cream flavors. He can't make up his mind whether he's really a son of Massachusetts (where he was born), or Texas (where he's registered to vote) or Maine (where he owns a home), Connecticut (where he attended Yale) or Washington, D.C.--where he resides when he's not attending funerals. Voters who heckled about Gary Hartpence's name-change will also be turned off by Bush's favorite-son strategy.

ON the campaign trail, Bush likes to allude to the successes of the "Reagan-Bush" administration. But the public will be reviewing the Reagan-Bush failures as well. George Bush can promise to be the "education president." But the voters won't forget that Reagan-Bush attempted to slash education spending. He can talk about compassion, but most voters will remember who was slashing food stamp programs during the 1981 - 1983 recession. The Vice President can promise to bring integrity back to Washington, but he can't hide the fact that he stood behind Meese, Deaver, Nofziger, McFarlane, North, and Reagan's other crooked croneys.

Ronald Reagan remains a very popular president, seven years into his term. He is popular not because of his intellectual prowess or his command of details. People like Reagan's personality and they believe he's a strong leader. Bush's personality pales next to Reagan, and he fails to convince voters that he would provide forceful leadership if elected.

By billing himself as Reagan's right-hand man, Bush managed to capture the Republican nomination. Capturing the support of the American electorate will be a little harder.

Between now and November, Mike Dukakis and George Bush will debate the economy, national defense, and their visions for America's future. But in the end, George Bush will lose the election because he's not "one of us" and he's not Ronald Reagan.

Bush can count on the Deep South and on New Hampshire. But if Bush's message doesn't sell in traditionally Republican states--like Oregon--then Bush is in serious trouble. With George Bush heading the Republican ticket, the party is headed for certain defeat (or as George Bush would call it, "Deep Doo Doo") come election day.