Bush's Victory Is Hollow

AT 9:16 p.m., Channel Five told me what the networks had sworn not to divulge until 11:00 p.m.--that George Bush will be the forty-first President. When ABC projected that he had captured Missouri's ten electoral votes, Bush crossed the magic threshold of 270 electoral votes.

But rampant ticket splitting--with Democratic gains in both houses of Congress and state elections--shows a clear case of political schizophrenia in the American electorate.

Democratic pundits say that voters wanted to hedge their bets by putting a congressional brake on the Bush administration. Republicans say that wins by incumbents show a general satisfaction with elected officials who bask in Reagan-induced prosperity. Electoral reformers say that it reflects the insurmountable advantages of incumbency.

Whatever the cause, the 101st Congress will be dominated by Democrats. And that Congress will determine the fortunes of Bush's legislative agenda.

More likely than not, Congress will ignore the Bush agenda entirely and pursue its own. For that, Bush has no one to blame but himself.

In his campaign for the Presidency, Bush relied heavily on "hot button" issues--the pledge of allegiance and prison furloughs--that carry great emotional appeal, but bear little relevance to Presidential leadership. He avoided pushing specific policy proposals, save for a few trivial programs such as his college savings plan.

So Bush's victory, no matter how large the margin, gives him a mandate to require loyalty oaths, promote philoprogenitiveness, deny prison furloughs, and very little else.

UNFORTUNATELY for the nation, there are far more pressing items on the national agenda. Deficit reduction, environmental cleanup, urban poverty, campaign reform, trade policy, health care, day care, and retraining displaced industrial workers will all be considered by the next Congress.

And from Day One, President-elect Bush will find a newly rejuvenated Democratic Congressional leadership implacably opposed to his policies.

Quite simply, Bush will have no Presidential honeymoon. Democrats in Congress will punish Bush for his say nothing campaign. They have no incentive to adopt Bush's proposals, because he offered none for popular referendum. Bush will be little more than a four-year lame duck.

AFTER they regained control of the Senate in 1986, Democrats recognized that they could pursue a legislative agenda of their own, independent of Presidential initiative. The Democratic Congress passed a catastrophic-illness bill, a trade bill, plant closing legislation, sanctions against South Africa, and restrictions on contra aid, despite Reagan's opposition.

If the Democratic Congress was so willing to buck a popular President with a powerful mandate, they can be expected to give Bush no ground during his tenure.

In the meantime, Democrats can console themselves by imagining Bill Bradley or Mario Cuomo as FDR to Bush's Hoover. Michael Dukakis can remind himself that it's better to be right than President.

As for me, I offer some advice for President-elect Bush: "Eat right, stay fit, get plenty of exercise, avoid stress, watch out for radon, stray bullets..."