Banking on a 1-in-64 Shot

With just one weekend remaining in regular season play, five reams are still in he running for the Ivy League men's basketball crown, and as many as four could tie for the Ancient Eight title.

At 9-3 Penn has already assured itself of at least a tie for first place, but Harvard, Cornell, Columbia and Princeton--all 7-5--could each conceivably force a playoff for the crown and the accompanying NCAA berth.

The Quakers would need to lose both games at Cornell and Columbia this weekend to force a playoff with any of the other four that wins both its games this weekend.

Since Princeton also plays both Cornell and Columbia, it is impossible for all three to participate in a playoff.

Thus, the only four-way possibility involves Penn, Harvard, Cornell and Columbia.

There are, by the way, four three way possibilities.

If four teams are involved in the playoff, two semifinal games would be held next Monday at a site to be determined, with the championship game taking place next Tuesday.

If three teams are involved, one squad will receive a bye and the two remaining teams will play next Monday. The championship game would be held next Tuesday.

If two teams are in the playoff, just one game would be held next Tuesday.

Confused?

Then just assume all games are random, and you've got a one in 64 chance there'll be a four-way playoff.

And that way you won't have to worry about it.

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Because of reasons that would take more space than we've got, Harvard cannot be involved in a two-way playoff. The only possibilities for the Crimson are a three-way or a fourway playoff.

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With all that said, let's get realistic and turn towards the NIT.

If Harvard wins its final two regular season games, the word is that it stands a good chance to garner an NIT bid.

Two wins on the road this weekend over Brown and Yale teams Harvard has already beaten once this year--would put the Crimson's final season record at 17-7.

Many believe that would be good enough to warrant serious NIT consideration.

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Though the NCAA more is more prestigious the NIT night just be a better bet for the Crimson.

While the Ivy League champion gets an automatic berth in the NCAAs, this year--because there are no preliminary games--it also gets a date in the first round with a top-seeded team.

That means either Georgetown St. Johns or Michigan, and that means a pretty quick exit for the Ivy League champ.

With weaker teams in the field, the NIT would give Harvard a shot at a victory or two.

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A year age, Harvard used several late non conference games to prepare for its run at the Ivy League crown.

This year, because of scheduling problems, contests with Brandeis and New York University were cancelled. That meant the Crimson was preparing for its Ivy League games in its Ivy League games.

That might just explain some of Harvard's line season problems.

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Harvard not only broke a three game losing streak in last week's 77-64 victory over Cornell but also broke a string of games in which it had shot under 50 percent from the floor.

The Crimson hit .522 from the floor in Saturday night's victory over the Big Red, marking the first time in six games it had connected on more than half of its field goals.

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In the latest NCAA rankings, Harvard is still the nation's most accurate team from the tree throw line.

Harvard is currently connecting at an 808 clip, and solid performances in its final games this weekend should assure the Crimson of the numberone ranking in this category for the second straight year.

Barring two perfect games, though, Harvard will most likely not break the NCAA free throw percentage record (.822) it set a year ago.

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Ironically, though the Crimson is no longer one of the nation's five most accurate teams from the floor, it will most likely set a team record for field goal percentage.

Currently ranked 16th in the nation, Harvard is connecting from the floor at a .523 clip.

The old record, see just last year .518.

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Sophomore Keith Webster--who hit 14 of 14 free throws in last Saturday's Cornell clash--has a streak of 16 successful charity stripe attempts going.

The most accurate Crimson cager from the from throw ling Webster is hitting at an .889 clip and is ranked among the nation's top 10 in that department.

If he keeps his streak going Webster also might reach the Harvard record for best season percentage from the free throw line (.909), set by Jeff Grate in 1966-67

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Harvard Coach Frank McLaughlin, who needs just are more victory to record 100 career wins, has coached Harvard's top three all-time leading scores (Joe Carrabino, Donald Fleming and Bob Ferry) and Harvard's top two all-time leading assesters (Glenn Fine and Pat Smith).

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In the J.C. department, the honors are beginning to flow in for the Crimson's senior co-captain.

Carrabino, Harvard's all-time leading scorer, was yesterday named to the Basketball Writers Association of America's District I All-Star Team.

That team includes 10 players from the New England, Pennsylvania and West Virginia areas.

Meanwhile, the Academic All-American is beginning to rewrite the Harvard record book.

Carribino, a shoo-in to become only the second player in Harvard history to repeat as a first-team All-Ivy selection, is averaging 21.3 points per game so far this season. That would place him fourth on the Crimson single season scoring list, behind only Fitzsimmons, Keith Sedlacek and himself.

Carrabine--who has scored in double figures 45 straight games--holds third place on that list with a 22.0 average.

What's more, the 6 ft., 9-in Encino, Calif, native has 600 field foals to date, closing in on Fleming's record of 702.

Last year's Ivy League Player of the Year, Carrabino is also within reach of Keith Sedlacek's career mark of 18.3 points per game.

For his career, Carrabino is averaging 18.1 points per game.

Finally, Carrabino still hasn't missed a free throw in the final five minutes of a game in more than a year. The last time he missed one was Feb. 3, 1984 at Columbia.

Since then he's made 62 straight in the final five minutes of all contests.

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Carrabino currently has 1835 career points. Only three players in Ivy League history have scored 1900 or more, and only two of those have broke the magical 2000 barrier.

Yale's Ton, Lavelli (1945-1949) was one of the three to score 900.

Name the other two.

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Junior point guard Pat Smith has committed last seven turnovers in the last nine games.

More incredibly, the last time Smith committed more than one turnover in a single contest was eight games ago.

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With two wins this weekend, the Crimson would finish with 17 wins, marking the second most in Harvard history. Only the 20-3 club of 1945-46 had more, and only the 17-6 squad of 1921-22 had as many.

With 15 wins, Harvard has already assured itself of its best two-year mark since the 1970-71 and 1971-72 clubs that won 31. Last year's club also won 15.

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Now lending even better credence to the belief that Harvard has gotten itself in trouble by not substituting is this fact: Harvard is outscoring its opponents in the first half by more than four points.

In the second half, however, opponents are outscoring the Crimson by almost two points.

* * *

Harvard's finished its home schedule has weekend with its triumph over Cornell.

The Crimson finished 9-4 at home this season, but just 3-4 at home in the Ivy League.

Overall, Harvard has won 20 of its 27 at home and is 31-12 all time at Briggs Athletic Center.

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Answer to this week's trivia: Princeton's Bill-the all-time leading scorer in Ivy League history--and Yale's Butch Graves each scored more than 2000 points.

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THE NOTEBOOK'S NOTEBOOK: Bob Ferry has fouled out in three consecutive games... Harvard has been involved in 14 games decided by six points or less. The Crimson is 10-4 is those games... The cagers are 6-2 in games decided by three or less... Harvard players have recorded 38 perfect nights from the line... The Crimson is shooting 85 percent from the line in the last five minutes of its games...Carrabino scored more than 20 points on consecutive nights last weekend, marking the first time in three weeks he had done that...Freshman Kyle Dodson has made just one of his last eight attempts from the floor. For the season he's connecting at a .293 clip...if you don't consider number of attempts, then the Crimsons most accurate cager from the tree-throw line is junior, Bill Parkerson who is connecting at 1,000 clip Parkerson is two-for-two.

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