Staying Calm

PRESIDENT REAGAN has won a significant political victory with the Soviet downing of Korean Airlines flight 007, though no one in the White House would ever put it so bluntly. In recent weeks the President had gone against his own instincts by signing a long term grain deal with Moscow, lifting a ban on the sale of caterpillar pipe-layer equipment, and agreeing to initial a treaty on security and human rights negotiated in Madrid.

But when a Soviet fighter shot down KAL 007, killing all 269 passengers, the renascent détente in Washington was effectively stopped in its tracks. Thanks in just about equal parts to George Shultz's moderating influence and the lack of viable sanctions, Reagan's immediate response to the Soviet's brutal deed was mild: the usual harsh rhetoric coupled with some minor restrictions on cultural and diplomatic exchange. But despite the President's reaffirmation of his commitment to arms control, it is clear that this latest East-West crisis has been a boon to Reagan, slowing the nuclear freeze movement and weakening the Democrats' resolve to criticize the Administration's performance in Geneva. And it will give the Defense Department's desire for dollars--and the MX missile system--added credibility in Congress. Said one White House official: "We've been saying all along that the Russians play by a different set of rules... Most of this detente talk will die down and rightly so. The Soviets have given us a timely warning about themselves."

Yet the real warning to be derived from the saga of flight 007 is the need for renewed and continuous efforts at peaceful coexistence with the Soviet Union. Probably we will never know for sure why the Korean airliner strayed off course, nor whether the Soviets attempted through non-lethal means to make the jet land or change course. But we do know--or have been violently reminded--how paranoid the Soviets are about defense. Because of its callous act, the USSR risks the wrath of the rest of the world and, more importantly, significant setbacks in its geopolitical strategy. Such a nation must be either so brazen that a policy of detente is hopeless (and fallout shelters a national priority) or very afraid of its adversary's military potential. Most conservatives would argue the first point. Yet the second interpretation seems much closer to reality.

Between them, members of the Politburo share enough foreign policy savvy to have realized the consequence of destroying an unarmed passenger jet, particularly since memories of the world's revulsion after the invasion of Afghanistan and the toppling of Solidarity are still fresh. Surely Yuri Andropov would not discard his hopes for Western European neutralism, or the Soviet Union's image among impressionable Third World countries, in order to flex his military muscle. In all probability, Andropov and Co. were not even consulted about flight 007. Instead, a general on the ground followed standing instructions to the hilt and ordered his pilot to fire.

That the Soviets have such a loathsome policy should not come as a surprise. One doesn't have to be a hawk to understand that the Soviet political system has evolved in a manner that permits its leaders to act in ways abhorrent to Western democracies. Yet it should be apparent--given the many invasions of Russia throughout its history, the 20 million Soviet World War II casualties, and Moscow's fear of aggression from both the East and the West--that these acts result at least in part from Soviet paranoia. A consistent Western policy of economic exchange, decreased rhetoric and serious arms control negotiations based on compromise--as opposed to the present Administration's "all or nothing" approach--will serve to assuage Soviet fears and thus make tragedies like that of flight 007 less likely to occur.

That Americans and others in the Western bloc reacted with outrage and anger at the murder of 269 innocents is natural. Yet these emotions must not let our hearts dictate to our minds. In truth, the passengers of flight 007 were victims of a war--the Cold War. When civilians die in El Salvador or Afghanistan, our hurt is tempered by the notion that the dead were in the middle of a war zone. The Korean Airlines jet flew into the most subtle and ultimately pernicious war zone of them all--the gulf that separates East and West. As tension mounts and technology becomes increasingly difficult to control, incidents like last week's will multiply. Then the resolve required to follow a moderate course will crumble and the unthinkable will be possible--whether through accident or intent. A warning has indeed been sounded. Now we must insure that those on board flight 007 did not die in vain.