Experts Call Iran-Iraq Clash An Iraqi Drive for Dominance

The tempo of fighting between Iran and Iraq picked up sharply yesterday in what some Harvard experts yesterday called an attempt by Iraq to establish itself as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf at a time of Iranian weakness.

Samuel P. Huntington, Thomson Professor of Government, said Iraq's desire to "make clear that it is the top dog in the Persian Gulf" is the "root cause" of the spreading border conflict.

"Now that Iran is in turmoil, with its army disorganized and lacking leadership, Iraq is trying to settle an old score, George Bisharat, a doctoral candidate in Middle East Studies and Anthropology, said yesterday.

In 1975, the Iraqi government was struggling with its own rebellious Kurdish minority and was forced to make territorial concessions to Iran in order to prevent the former Shah from aiding the rebels.

Iraq last week attempted to reassert its sovereignty over the 60-mile-long Shatt al-Arab river separating the two countries renouncing the 1975 agreement in which it had partially relinquished control to Iran.

Since the agreement, air, ground and sea hostilities have escalated into what Iraq state radio termed a "full scale war" with each nation reporting it has inflicted heavy damage on the other.

Reports

Iraq radio reported yesterday that MIGs raided Tehran's international airport and at least a half-dozen other Iranian air installations, while Iran claimed it had launched successful retaliatory attacks on two Iraqi air bases. But William A. Graham, associate professor of Islamic Religion, warned that the reports might be exaggerated because each side "wanted to show the other as a warmongerer."

The impact of the clash on U.S.-Soviet relations is not yet discernible, Huntington said.

Big Bad Bear

He warned however, the conflict could provide the Soviet Union with an excuse to intervene in Iran under the terms of a past treaty, but Bisharat doubted the USSR would resort to such an option because "that would invite a global conflagration."

Bisharat speculated that since the conflict will preoccupy Iranian leaders the release of the American hostages might be delayed temporarily.

"I can't, however, envision a situation in which Iran would turn to the U.S. for help against Iraq," he added. "That would be too dramatic a policy reversal. Besides, in Iran now they're telling the people that the U.S. put the Iraqis up to this."

Tensions between Iraq's radical government and the U.S. have gradually diminished in recent years, Bisharat said.

President Carter said yesterday the United States will not take sides in the border fighting. "We are monitoring the situation closely," he told reporters in Los Angeles, adding, "Our only hope is that the two nations can resolve the dispute peacefully," perhaps by using the United Nations.