Panelists Discuss Images vs. Issues

Although David A. Keene, George Bush's political director, admits that polls in New Hampshire include "eight to ten points of Iowa hype for our candidate that will disappear," he nevertheless believes there has been a significant shift in grass roots support from Ronald Reagan to Bush in the race for the Republican nomination.

Tim Kraft, head of the Carter/Mondale Presidential Committee, sees no such shift in the Democratic Party, and says that Iowa only demonstrated the resurfacing support Carter has had all along. Kraft adds, "We didn't believe the polls last summer [when as few as 19 per cent of those questioned said they approved of Carter's performance] and we don't believe them now."

Since their candidates grabbed victories in Iowa and the top spots in the opinion polls, Keene and Kraft have wallowed in the praise of journalists and fellow political strategists.

With the New Hampshire and Massachusetts primaries looming in the near future, the two campaign chiefs, who were interviewed at the Kennedy School of Government this past weekend, must now evaluate upcoming tests from a new perspective--that of the front runner.

Neither man thinks that the competition is very far behind. Keene speaks from an intimate knowledge of a Reagan campaign built on a "strong and resilient base." He led Reagan's 1976 primary effort in the South and worked for the former California governor through the end of 1978.

"Reagan is still the most popular candidate within the party," Keene says, adding with reference to Iowa, "He's the only candidate who can stand a defeat."

Keene marvels that "Reagan sent in his 'B' team to organize the state. They did a lousy job. He downplayed and insulted the state and still almost won."

Despite this admiration for Reagan, Keene believes that Bush can win over the die-hard Republican conservatives to complement his popularity among moderates. Keene points to "second-level support" among the backers of Reagan, Sen. Howard H. Baker Jr. (R-Tenn.) and John B. Connally. "Everybody basically likes George Bush," he adds.

Kraft has mixed praise for the Kennedy organization. "They put together a good campaign in Iowa considering their late start," but in Kennedy headquarters, "there are a lot of chiefs and few Indians."

Unlike Keene, Kraft does not emphasize recent converts, but speaks instead of a subtle "soft support."

"People were thinking that any and all problems must be attributed to the president last summer. That is no longer so," Kraft says, adding that voters who may have voiced temporary frustrations over the past year never lost faith in Carter.

While Kraft foresees no major changes in his campaign strategy, Keene predicts that Bush will deal more specifically with the issues "as the public begins to think of him as a potential president" and the media shift their analysis from "his campaign to who he is."

Keene explains that the media have contributed a great deal to Bush's success. He adds that the networks and the major newspapers "construct a continuing series about somebody that develops. They [the voters] want somebody who's got some confidence, good grace and humor."

Bush's adviser says voters are "not obsessed with the issues. It's not healthy to have such a politicized society."

Kraft, however, refuses to discuss the media's influence with any seriousness. "The press is very democratic," he says, adding with a big grin, "It treats everybody like dogs."

Kraft responds with guarded optimism to questions about the New Hampshire face-off on February 26. He says Kennedy's highly publicized address at Georgetown University "energized [Kennedy's] troops, but will not win over independents or Carter Democrats."

Acknowledging that the Carter camp is hoping for more than mere survival in Kennedy's neck of the woods, Kraft says, "If Kennedy loses in Maine and New Hampshire, his claim of elective superiority will be gone."

Keene says that his man will struggle in New Hampshire because "Baker can drain votes away from Bush," and adds that Reagan operatives have already suggested a Reagan-Baker debate to isolate Bush. "They'll hear from us if that comes off," Keene warns.

Like Kraft, however, Keene cannot disguise the confidence he has in his own political handiwork: "People want character, not just the issues. It's an entire judgement of a man... of George Bush.