Experts Uncertain of Poland's Future

Harvard experts in East European affairs said last night they are uncertain that the Soviet Union currently plans to invade Poland, but added quickly that in the event of an invasion the West could do little to respond effectively.

Consequently, the experts agree that recent allied warnings will have little effect over Soviet decision-making processes in the next few weeks.

"The Soviet strategy is to first intimidate the Communist party in Poland into taking control of the workers, and then to put pressure on the new labor unions to stay in line," said Adam B. Ulam, Guerney Professor of History and Political Science. Intervention would be a last resort, Ulam said, but he added that the Soviets would not hesitate to take such action if they deemed it necessary.

Several of the East European scholars interviewed said that the current unrest in Poland poses a greater threat to the Soviet Bloc than the Czechoslovakia uprisings in 1968 and the revolt in Hungary in 1956, both of which brought Soviet intervention.

"This is a worker-based, nationwide movement undermining Soviet authority," Michael L. Nact, associate professor of public policy at the Kennedy School, said yesterday. Because U.S. leverage in the area is extremely limited, the possibility of a Soviet takeover in Poland is "quite high," Nact added.

However, Marshall Goldman, associate director of the Russian Research Center, said that current Warsaw Pact maneuvers near the Polish border were primarily an attempt to intimidate the Polish people, and may not be an indication that intervention is imminent.

The potential options open to the U.S. in the event of Soviet action inside Poland, especially after the inauguration of President-elect Ronald Reagan, include "pressure on Cuba, and maybe even a blockade," Goldman said. "I do not advocate this option, but Reagan said it during the campaign," he added.

Goldman said that the Soviets would likely prefer to settle the Polish crisis before Jan. 20, when Reagan takes office.

Others suggested more moderate ac- tions, and James C. Thomson, curator of the Nieman Foundation, said that further economic sanctions on the Soviet Union could create severe hardships on the Soviet people. "But the security of the Eastern Bloc is more important than other concerns," Thomson added.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Edmund Muskie met today with the NATO allies, attempting to formulate a unified Western position on the crisis. Harold Brown, the secretary of defense, said that several AWAC reconnaissance planes had been dispatched to West Germany, presumably to keep a closer watch on Soviet troop movements along the Polish border.

"A united front of the West is the most important response to Soviet intervention," Ulam said. Additionally, he said, "The Polish people would offer some armed resistance," along with some elements of the military. Apart from the Soviets, the Polish Army is the largest in the Soviet Bloc, but its equipment is generally considered older and less sophisticated than those of other Warsaw Pact nations