Presidential Battle Too Close to Call

Former California Gov. Ronald Reagan will be elected president tomorrow, regardless of any new developments in the Iranian hostage situation, Harvard government professors predicted yesterday.

"The Ayatoilah's vote was cast a little too late," Douglas A. Hibbs Jr., professor of Government, said, adding that he believes Carter's poor record on the economy will outweigh any last-minute deal to release the hostages, who entered captivity one year ago today.

Joseph S. Nye Jr., professor of Government, cited the disproportionately large number of electoral votes in western states as a key factor in what he believes will be a Reagan victory. Although he allowed that a well staged hostage release might affect balloting, Nye discounted the possibility of a Carter victory, calling negotiations with Iran "too late and too imperfect."

Too Little, Too Late

A large voter turnout--especially among undecideds--might swing the election toward Carter, but successful negotiations with Iran would have had to occur about three weeks ago to bolster the President now, Richard E. Neustadt, Littauer Professor of Public Administration, said.

"Until mid-last week I would have guessed Carter by a squeak, but if I'm to believe the polls of this weekend then I'd have to shift that guess to Reagan by a substantial electoral vote," Neustadt said.

Despite fears in the Reagan camp that Carter's maneuvers with Iran might thwart the 69-year-old challenger's bid, the President's "November surprise" is occurring about two weeks too late, Richard N. Frye, Aga Khan Professor of Iranian, said.

Frye added, however, that he "wouldn't be surprised if some--maybe all--of the hostages came home soon. They could go to Algiers this evening."

If Iran releases only a few hostages this morning, it might affect the Carter effort negatively, James Q. Wilson, Shattuck Professor of Government, said, explaining that a small number of releases might "make a show of our impotence."

Nathan Glazer, professor of education and social structure, predicted that renewed discussion of the hostage crisis should deter a Carter win because it reminds people of "the most humiliating period in American history."

But James C. Thomson Jr., curator of the Nieman fellowships, disagreed with Reagan-victory sentiment, saying he believes Carter will capture at least the popular vote "by an eyelash."

"Enough people who would otherwise sit at home or vote for Anderson may be scared by the fact that Reagan has allegedly got it in the bag," Thomson said, adding, "It's probably wishful thinking."

Both Thomson and Neustadt said that a Reagan victory might expedite release of the hostages by the end of Carter's lame-duck presidency. Thomson said the Iranians may wish to settle the situation before the "new duck" takes the oath, while Neustadt stressed that Carter would probably want to leave office with the resolution of the crisis to his credit.

H. Douglas Price, professor of Government, also said-he believes a lame-duck status might provide the incentive for Carter to attempt resolution of the hostage crisis by January