An III Wind Doth Blow

The winds that spread tax fever cut across the country, the winds that fill Ronald Reagan's spreading sails as he seeks the presidency; these are the same winds that blew across America's prairies this winter, spring and summer. The gale force conservative bluster was supposed to blow away liberal senators Frank Church of Idaho, George McGovern of South Dakota, John Culver of Iowa and Birch Bayh of Indiana like so many mobile homes in the path of a tornado. But now it seems that the eye of the storm might, just might, have passed and that the winds of the hurricane have turned back upon themselves.

More than a year ago, conservative strategists gathered in some D.C. war room and began sticking pins in maps. They aimed at Church--their chief target, for he was floor manager for the Panama Canal "giveaway." They stuck a pin in Indiana, where they said Birch Bayh had voted consistently to cut national defense. Iowa's John Culver made it to the list, for his fellow Iowa liberal, Dick Clark, has proven vulnerable in 1978. And George McGovern, it almost went without saying, got a pin too, if for no better reason than the memory of his radlib run for the White House in 1972.

Their targets picked, the men representing the National Conservative Political Action Committee (NCPAC), Christian Voice, Moral Majority and local groups like Ship Out Bayh (SOB) and Anybody But Church (ABC), went to work, raising money, registering voters and turning out pamphlets and television commercials, all designed to put the incumbents on the defensive. Stressing issues like abortion, defense spending, and "social engineering," the conservatives started to hammer away, and in every case, their efforts seemed to be working, for each state, if presidential returns are any indication, is more conservative than its senator.

But all the sitting ducks chose the same route back into the race--exploiting their status as special targets to complain of outside interference in the elections. And the strategy has been effective; in every race the incumbents have at least managed to climb back into the fight.

In South Dakota, for instance, where McGovern is making his fifth and, he promises, his last, run for the Senate, "Target McGovern" and other groups began as early as two years ago to disseminate literature and recruit volunteers, all in an attempt to soften up the progressives for Republican challenger Jim Abdnor. Abdnor pressed the attack on pocketbook issues, letting his less chivalrous allies address issues like abortion. But their efforts began to backfire--one pamphlet accused the father of five of being a baby killer, enough to convince many South Dakotans that their senior Senator truly was the victim of a smear campaign controlled from beyond their borders.

And Abdnor made mistakes on his own. His handlers "forgot" to report $36,000 in contributions, most from out-of-state conservatives and oil companies. And what should have been a big boost from the visit of Gerald R. Ford turned into a big disaster when the former president recommended publicly that the opponents stage a debate--unaware that Abdnor had already refused a McGovern challenge.

With a week to go in the campaign, McGovern--who has always been forced to come from behind--appeared to have pulled even with Abdnor, his strategy having put the challenger on the defensive. So while the jes' folks Abdnor waged a last-minute dietary campaign--capping his race with a huge "bean feed" at the state university, and Jim Abdnor Pancake Day in Mitchell--the more senatorial McGovern aired a series of commercials and made private visits across the state, hoping he could pull off another miracle.

When Iowa's Culver played fullback for Harvard's varsity, he was known as pugnacious, a trait he's retained through his career in the world's most exclusive club. Culver should feel lucky he's never been tamed, for he's had to drawn on every political instinct in this year's battle against Republican Charles Grassley, the Moral Majority candidate in the Corn State.

Moral Majority forces began the Iowa campaign on a high note, claiming that Culver was a part of the "crowd which made legal the killing of babies, made the streets safe for criminals and rapists, and kicked God out of our schools." Hard charges to beat, but Culver has turned to the best source of all: when confronted with the Moral Majority rehetoric, he quotes Matthew 25. "Have you helped feed the hungry? Have you brought water to the thirsty?... To the extent that you've done these unto the least, you have done them unto me," Culver paraphrases. "I don't think conservatives can improve on that rating system," he adds. "My opponent [who got a 100-per-cent Moral Majority rating] voted against foreign aid. What would Jesus Christ have said to that when one billion people in the world are going to bed hungry every night?" he asks.

Culver's opponents have had several tiffs over money from outside the state--Grassley has pleaded guilty to taking NCPAC funds, but he asks, with some justification, why that's any worse than accepting cash from the coffers of Americans for Democratic Action (ADA), a group that has swollen Culver's war chest. More than his embattled liberal colleagues, Culver has refused to yield on his progressive record, insisting he's satisfied with his stand on the issues. Perhaps as a result, Iowa's election may be less of a referendum on the question of outside interference and more of an ideological decision. With four days to go, both sides call it even.

In Indiana, though, the supporters of veteran Bayh are beginning to breathe a little easier. Seeking his fourth term in a state ruled by Republicans, Bayh met harsh criticism early from Republican foe Dan Quayle. Pointing to the Hoosier State's moderate/conservative population, Quayle insists Bayh would make a great senator--for Massachusetts.

But Bayh so far has resisted the combined efforts of SOB, Indiana Right to Life, Moral Majority and NCPAC. Even Quayle's polls show the challenger trailing by at least four points, a lead the veteran may have increased with his impressive showing in a televised debate and his rhetorical move to the right, not to mention his repeated stress on the value of seniority in winning favors, for the folks back home.

Reagan's showing in a traditionally Republican state may have a lot to do with Bayh's chances. The charges of liberalism--a term Quayle and company speak in the tone of voice Americans usually reserve for Bolshevism--probably will not destroy Bayh. But if the GOP presidential candidate carries Indiana by more than 350,000 votes... this is a coat-tails prospect Bayh's backers do not care to discuss.

In Idaho, the voters have seen the most colorful battle of all. The Church-Steve Symms fight has included everything--Symms lost votes in Mormon southeastern Idaho when word got out he was something of a womanizer. But he may have regained the support when his troops began circulating a statement Church reportedly made upon his return from Libya in 1977 to the effect that he had been too busy to chase women and drink liquor.

Four-term congressmen Symms is the essence of earthy politics; he hands out his wife's apple receipes as he tours the state. Indeed, the apple, or rather the bite out of it signifying reduced taxes and clean fiscal living, has become his symbol. To retaliate, Church has become the consummate Idahoan in his television ads--the New Republic reports that his favorite pose of late is toting a shotgun while walking along a ranch fence in sheepskin jacket and cowboy hat.

Although Idaho is landbound territory a few thousand miles from the tropics. the Panama Canal has become a major issue in the state's election. Church, remember, helped hand the trench over to the Panamanians, a move he contends kept Panama friendly to the U.S. Symms, though, cites the episode as evidence of Church's general softness and has forced Church to spend a good deal of his stump time discussing the waterway.

Symms didn't help his cause when he speculated in silver futures around the time that Nelson Bunker Hunt was trying his best to bankrupt the Republic; the financial fooling around was especially damaging to his campaign since it turned out Hunt served on Symm's finance committee. And Church's labor support has yet to be eroded by the right-to-work challenger. But the biggest feather in Church's cap may be his seniority--power he has exploited to bring Idahoans enough favors that they will likely return him to Washington, especially since Reagan/Church bumper stickers have cropped up across the state in the last two weeks.

Liberals, in general, die hard. Like rats learnning to love poisoned cheese, these mavericks seem to have turned their unorthodoxy into something of an advantage. But the conservative winds are blowing stronger than usual this year; as professional pols always say, the outcome will depend on the weather