Storm Warning

"The independence, security and development of the countries of the Third World are very important to our national security... Our interests are served when the countries of the developing world are able to meet the needs and aspirations of their people peacefully, democratically, and through co-operation with the United States and other countries of the West." --President Carter, remarks to the American Legion, August 21

"We cannot be indifferent--and we will not retreat one step from our human rights policy. Human rights is the very soul of our foreign policy."   --President Carter, remarks to the Polish National Alliance, September 20.

PRESIDENT FERDINAND E. Marcos of the Philippines has ruled through the use of martial law for more than eight years. Recent dispatches from his country show a regime ripping at the seams, a slew of terrorist strikes echoing the crackling coals of revolution. Like most developing countries, the Philippines has absorbed the triple economic onslaught of global recession, inflation, and rising oil prices. Marcos' national debt how stands at $11.2 billion, and the Philippines ranks as a leading debtor to the International Monetary Fund.

Even more revealing is Marcos' recently demonstrated inability to contain the tide of popular discontent. Last week the Philippine leader played host to the American Society of Travel Agents', a convention Marcos deemed crucial to Philippines' flagging economy and image. Although ASTA members had received a warning last month signed by the most visible anti-Marcos group--the April 6 Liberation Movement, which claimed credit for many of the bombings during the autumn--Marcos gave impassioned personal guarantees of safety to the travel agents. These importunations prevailed enough to draw 3500 delegates to Manila, which had taken two years to prepare for the event. The dictator wrapped the visitors in an imposing cloak of security, giving an impression of impenetrability. The delegates packed the convention hall to hear Marcos assail the Western press for exaggerating his problems and ask his visitors to take stock of Manila as evidence of its peacefulness. But moments after Marcos finished his speech, a bomb went off 20 rows away, exploding the facade of control he had tried to hard to project. While he and the U.S. Ambassador. Richard W. Murphy, escaped unharmed, 20 were injured (none fatally), As the travel agents scurried to the airport to flee the Philippines, it is safe to presume that package vacation deals to the Philippines were not foremost in their minds.

ASIDE FROM THE PRACTICAL damage, Marcos suffered acute embarrassment. The dictator went on a rampage, calling for the arrest of 30 political enemies, most currently residing in the U.S. Included in that group was Center for International Affairs fellow and leading dissident Benigno S. Aquino. Jr.. the opponent Marcos fears most and one of the first jailed upon the imposition of martial law.

From exile in Cambridge, Aquino has quietly urged Marcos to consider lifting martial law and open the door to conciliation before being swamped in a wave of revolution. Prior to last week's incident. Marcos--who had allowed Aquino out of the country for a triple bypass heart operation, primarily because he could not afford to let Aquino die in prison and become a martyr--responded cautiously, trying to keep his clasp on power while waiting out the results of the presidential election. The president put out feelers, realizing a compromise with Aquino provided at least a chance to salvage something from among the ruins.

But Marcos vigorously retracted his hints that he would consider lifting martial law when the April 6 Movement--which the dictator contends is linked to Aquino--pulled its convention bombing, and conspicuously called into question Marcos' capacity to maintain peace and order. The guerillas stopped short of assassinating Marcos (it appears they easily could have), preferring instead to flaunt their havoc-wreaking. For his part, Aquino denied any connection with the April 6 Movement, a fact even acknowledged by the terrorists who declared him their leader "even though he hasn't yet recognized us."

The reason given by the April 6 Movement for their drastic action is that Marcos' collapse has become inevitable, and if progressive forces do not win the battle for succession, communist forces will. Only by usurping the initiative, they argue, can the ascendance of the communists (reportedly gaining strength in the country's rural areas) be prevented. And yet, Marcos last week directed that the death penalty be dug up for the present CFIA fellow. Thus Aquino remains in a precarious position--unable to either sanction terrorist bombings or to return home and find an alternative consitituency. He takes Marcos' latest diatribes with a combined sense of equanimity and bewilderment, terming the president "paranoid," or, in more ingenuous moments, "crazy."

MEANWHILE, THE U.S. SEEMS intent on committing a foreign policy error in the Philippines similar to the fiasco in Iran. Right now, Congress has a five-year, $500 million aid agreement with this country in its ninth year of martial law. During the presidential campaign, the State Department has a vested interest in keeping the situation "stable" and, more important, quiet, President Carter (and accordingly, Secretary of State. Edmund Muskie) cannot afford to have another military dictatorship ally fall this week, lest he be open to charges of "softness" from his Republican opponent.

Aquino himself admits he has been asked "not to rock the boat." If one calls the State Department to ask for comment on the most recent bombings, one gets the standard entree: "We abhor and condemn the use of violence for political purposes." If one asks the next logical question, namely, does martial law itself not in fact represent the "use of violence for political purposes" or at least repression, you will get the even more prevalent response: "No comment."

Of course, a method in the apparent madness of supporting and condoning the Marcos regime does exist. The Philippines has two strategic air bases vital to U.S. military capability in the region. For this reason, Secretary of Defense Harold Brown reportedly circulated a letter in the Senate advising that the Philippines "must not be impaired at this time." This translates into tacit support for Marcos' flailing government. Not only did Congress approve the agreed-upon $100 million for Marcos, it added $6 million above and beyond the pact. Those in the Pentagon have an answer for bleeding-heart liberals--without a stable situation in the Philippines, the U.S. could not have guaranteed access to the military bases and could not play its "China card" with the Soviet Union--the last lever of power America seems to have with the Russians.

One State Department source said recently it is better to support Marcos because none of his opponents have "a positive program for operational change." Another State Department official. Frazier Meade, country director for Philippine Affairs, says the U.S. would do best "to avoid the competition between Aquino and Marcos." And they are not an inhuman lot down at State; privately, one source conceded when asked about martial law, "We're caught in a real bind."

But Aquino feels the U.S. is repeating a mistake of the past by holding on to Marcos in what clearly seem the dictator's final days. "It's myopic--if the U.S. supports one man against the wishes of the people. Not only is it leaving itself open to contradictions of human rights, but also it allows itself to be perceived as siding with Marcos. And when he goes..." Aquino's voice trails off. Then he tries another tack. "If the U.S. had no leverage, it could not be held responsible. But when it has the leverage and can't use its influence for the better, it gives the impression of propping up a dictatorship." Just because Carter has never invited Marcos to the White House, Aquino adds, does not mean that the people of the Philippines think the U.S. is opposed to his regime. He also charges the U.S. with "appeasing" Marcos by employing FBI investigators after Marcos issued his arrest warrants in the wake of the convention bombing--even though the two countries have no extradition treaty.

Yet despite the kid-glove treatment Marcos has received from Carter, he no doubt hopes for a Ronald Reagan victory next week, one that would assure him of being free from a whimsical human rights policy. Then the dictator could really bear down on his people, and "order" could be maintained at any expense. When he can no longer hold out--no matter which American candidate assumes office--the U.S. will either have to orchestrate a deft diplomacy or lose its influence in the Philippines. The State Department's motives are perfectly understandable in a historical vacuum: but the tragedy of the Philippines lies in American foreign policymakers' refusals to absorb the lessons of the past. It will be intriguing to see how America tries to defend its global interests in the region when confronted by yet another government which views the U.S. as downright treasonous.