Huntington Foresees U.S.-Soviet Conflict Within Next Decade

Tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States may be resolved in "an unpeaceful or unpleasant major confrontation sometime in the 1980s," Samuel P. Huntington, Thomson Professor of Government and director of the Center for International Affairs, said yesterday.

Huntington predicted the conflict might arise within the next decade as a result of changing conditions in the Soviet Union including a succession in national leadership, worsening economic and energy problems, and an improved military arsenal.

Huntington returned to Harvard this term after a two-year stint in the Carter administration as coordinator of Security Planning at the National Security Council. Working closely with Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter's national security adviser, Huntington served as a speechwriter and adviser to the president in the fields of defense and energy, and directed a study on U.S. national strategy in military policy.

Huntington's address, "U.S. Policy Toward the Soviet Union," the first in a series of U.S. foreign policy seminars sponsored by the Center for International Affairs, drew an audience of about 75 people in Coolidge Hall.

Huntington said that while the Soviets had "military equivalence" with the U.S., they were far from being "global equals" with the U.S. in international affairs in terms of technology, political and diplomatic influence, and economic progress. The "illusion" of such general parity which has come to dominate Soviet-American relations in world affairs may someday soon lead to Russian military intervention in some regional conflict and subsequent American retaliation, he added.

The recent Camp David agreement "hurt the Soviets greatly" because it showed the U.S. could "move towards solving the problem in the Middle East without the Soviets," he said.

Carter's human rights campaign and the new Sino-American alliance "irritated" the Soviet Union, Huntington said, adding, "Any vigorous pressing for human rights is a threat to the stability of the Soviet regime."

Huntington called on the U.S. "to develop a more stable and balanced policy towards the Soviet Union" which is both more "realistic and effective." He also noted the "polarization of American opinion" on the Soviet Union and disagreed with the positions of George Kennan and "extremists" like Walt Rostow and others on the Committee on the Present Danger.

Huntington authored a presidential memorandum which proposed 1) an increase in U.S. military spending by three percent annually in order to maintain a balance of power relative to the Soviet Union, 2) exploitation of non-military power to induce the Soviet Union to stay out of regional conflicts, and 3) the use of military force, if necessary, to contain Soviet influence in critical areas such as Europe.

Soviet-American relations over the next few years will probably continue to be characterized by "Cooperation and competition" and will "blow hot and cold," Huntington said. Referring to Western economic strength in relations with Russia, he said Soviet trade with the West which benefits the Soviet economy will most likely continue to increase provided that the Soviets restrain their activities with Cuba in African countries such as Ethiopia and Angola and if they "modify the way in which they treat their own people.