Japan Picks Moderate as New Leader

The surprise election yesterday of Masayoshi Ohira to replace Takeo Fukuda as prime minister of Japan may result in some subtle shifts in Japanese policy, but will probably not cause any major changes, Harvard Asian experts predicted yesterday.

Ohira, the 68-year-old secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic party, was characterized by experts as somewhat more moderate than Fukuda, who has been prime minister since 1976.

Fukuda decided to drop out of the running after his second place primary showing, but he could have stayed in the race, which the Japanese Parliament will formally decide December 1. "After the primary, it seemed a foregone conclusion Fukuda would lose" in the parliamentary election, Edwin O. Reischauer, University Professor and former American ambassador to Japan, said yesterday.

While stressing that the policies of Ohira and Fukuda were very similar, the experts said that there would probably be some changes.

Patrick Maddox, the director of external affairs for the Council on East Asian Studies, said that during Ohira's "honeymoon period, there may be some concessions in foreign trade negotiations with the U.S. that might not have happened otherwise."

"Ohira is more interested in smooth relations with the United States, and that may help at the margins of the negotiations," Ronald Napier '72, instructor in Economics, who teaches Economics 1251, "The Economic History of Japan," said yesterday.

Ohira is also a strong supporter of relations with China, Reischauer said. He added that Ohira is regarded as "more on the dovish side" of questions on defense spending than Fukuda had been.

"Basically, Ohira may be closer to the realignment of Japan around increased quality of life, instead of economic growth," Reischauer said.

"He will try to put his own stamp on history, just like any leader," Napier said, adding that Ohira might increase social welfare programs or try to take a more active role in international affairs.

Fukuda was favored to win the party primary, the first of its kind in many years in Japan. Ohira may have won because "he is closer to the center of Japanese politics" than the more conservative Fukuda, Reischauer said.

"People may just have decided his time had justifiably come," Maddox said. "He had waited and worked hard for a long time."

A third factor in Ohira's election may have been the support he received from former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, currently on trial for taking bribes from Lockheed Aircraft Corporation. Although Tanaka was forced to step down, he still controls a sizeable faction of supporters, Reischauer said, adding he doubts Ohira would have won if Tanaka had swung his support to Fukuda.

Reischauer characterized Ohira, who he said he knew very well in Japan, as "a man of principle and self-confidence. I expect he will come out boldly and provide the type of leadership Japan needs," Reischauer said.AP PhotoMASAYOSHI OHIRA